Sha Tin · 2020-12-06
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-06 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CROWN AVENUE, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C H Yip, won by 3/4, with EZRA second and DOUBLE TAKE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite SWEETLY BABY finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly V 1.48.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 4 | 6.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | EZRA Closed strongly C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 8 | 9.5 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | DOUBLE TAKE Closed strongly B J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 9 | 3.3 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | UNITE SPIRIT Closed strongly XB K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 2 | 8.8 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | KING'S RACE Led early B/TT T Piccone · K H Ting | T Piccone | K H Ting | 10 | 47.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 6 | 15.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | SWEETLY BABY B/H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 3.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | JIMMU SR K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 5 | 24.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | VOLPINO Closed strongly XB2/TT B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 7 | 30.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 3 | 23.0 | 11-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | DOUBLE TAKE | 31.8% | 3.14 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | SWEETLY BABY | 13.9% | 7.20 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | UNITE SPIRIT | 10.8% | 9.22 | 4 |
| 4 | 7 | CROWN AVENUE | 9.9% | 10.12 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | JIMMU | 9.4% | 10.61 | 8 |
| 6 | 1 | EZRA | 6.8% | 14.62 | 2 |
| 7 | 3 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR | 6.2% | 16.06 | 10 |
| 8 | 10 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 6.1% | 16.42 | 6 |
| 9 | 5 | KING'S RACE | 3.4% | 29.25 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | VOLPINO | 1.6% | 63.75 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 65.5
PLACE
1 24.5
6 15
7 20
QUINELLA
1,7 292
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 71
1,7 106.5
6,7 42
FORECAST
7,1 796
TIERCE
7,1,6 3,143
TRIO
1,6,7 417
FIRST 4
1,2,6,7 431
QUARTET
7,1,6,2 13,826
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 30
A1 —