Sha Tin · 2020-12-06

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-06 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. TURF BRILLIANT, ridden by T Piccone and trained by W Y So, won by 2, with CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE second and PROUD SKY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite SHINEALOT finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.39.72

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	10	TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly B 1.39.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T Piccone · W Y So	T Piccone	W Y So	3	125 lb	8.5	2
2	2	CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz	C L Chau	A S Cruz	4	126 lb	7.1	2
3	13	PROUD SKY Closed strongly V H W Lai · L Ho	H W Lai	L Ho	13	113 lb	90.0	2
4	4	SKY GEM Closed strongly C Schofield · C Fownes	C Schofield	C Fownes	11	133 lb	43.0	2
5	12	KEEP WINNING Led early TT C Wong · C W Chang	C Wong	C W Chang	2	109 lb	8.3	2-1/4
6	7	SHINEALOT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan	K Teetan	P O'Sullivan	5	129 lb	3.6	4-1/2
7	3	DRAGON COMMANDER Closed strongly H-/B2 J Moreira · Y S Tsui	J Moreira	Y S Tsui	7	133 lb	3.7	4-3/4
8	6	GENERAL DINO Closed strongly B N Callan · R Gibson	N Callan	R Gibson	14	130 lb	17.0	5-1/4
9	5	DAILY CHARM B/TT K H Chan · C S Shum	K H Chan	C S Shum	6	125 lb	40.0	6
10	9	SACRED TIMING Closed strongly B V Borges · D A Hayes	V Borges	D A Hayes	10	125 lb	14.0	6-3/4
11	11	THE FULL BLOOM V K C Leung · C H Yip	K C Leung	C H Yip	12	122 lb	37.0	7
12	14	FORTUNE BUDDY B H T Mo · T P Yung	H T Mo	T P Yung	1	110 lb	97.0	9-1/4
13	8	EVER STRONG B C Y Ho · K L Man	C Y Ho	K L Man	8	127 lb	40.0	9-1/2
14	1	BULB ELITE CP A Badel · C H Yip	A Badel	C H Yip	9	133 lb	19.0	11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE (25.5%) finished 2nd — the winner TURF BRILLIANT was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE	25.5%	3.93	2	7.1
2	3	DRAGON COMMANDER	18.1%	5.52	7	3.7
3	7	SHINEALOT	10.9%	9.16	6	3.6
4	10	TURF BRILLIANT	8.1%	12.30	1	8.5
5	4	SKY GEM	6.8%	14.67	4	43.0
6	1	BULB ELITE	4.4%	22.79	14	19.0
7	11	THE FULL BLOOM	4.3%	23.17	11	37.0
8	9	SACRED TIMING	4.3%	23.33	10	14.0
9	12	KEEP WINNING	3.8%	26.32	5	8.3
10	5	DAILY CHARM	3.4%	29.45	9	40.0
11	6	GENERAL DINO	3.2%	31.70	8	17.0
12	14	FORTUNE BUDDY	2.8%	35.22	12	97.0
13	8	EVER STRONG	2.4%	41.50	13	40.0
14	13	PROUD SKY	2.0%	51.00	3	90.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 85.5

PLACE

2 27

10 25

13 208

QUINELLA

2,10 355

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 126

2,13 1,292

10,13 1,623

FORECAST

10,2 831

TIERCE

10,2,13 59,813

TRIO

2,10,13 18,952

FIRST 4

2,4,10,13 76,657

QUARTET

10,2,13,4 1,034,865

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,10,12/2,10,13 1,178,076

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 26.5

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE

2/2 49.5

2/10 440.5

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