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Sha Tin · 2020-12-06

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TREASURE CHEST B/XB 1.09.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · P F Yiu 2 4.7 2-3/4
2 0 STRATHCLYDE CP/TT B Shinn · A T Millard 1 5.8 2-3/4
3 0 WAYFOONG CHARMER BO K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 10 6.9 5-3/4
4 0 SUPREME PATROL B J Moreira · D E Ferraris 7 8.9 5-3/4
5 0 FOX CHEUNGER B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 26.0 7
6 0 TARGET FINDER B-/XB/H2 H W Lai · C W Chang 5 14.0 7-1/4
7 0 REGENCY POET B C Schofield · K L Man 3 5.9 8-1/4
8 0 MONEYMORE CP V Borges · D A Hayes 9 17.0 9
9 0 VIVA COUNCIL V C L Chau · L Ho 4 6.0 13-3/4
10 0 TELECOM MISSILE V-/B2 A Hamelin · C H Yip 6 31.0 15-1/4
11 0 SKY TREASURE H/P2 H N Wong · Y S Tsui 12 25.0 16-1/2
— 0 STRONG PROMISE XB-/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 11 216.0 —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-06 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. TREASURE CHEST, ridden by N Callan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2-3/4, with STRATHCLYDE second and WAYFOONG CHARMER third. Victory came as the 4.7 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TREASURE CHEST—2. STRATHCLYDE+2.75L3. WAYFOONG CHARMER+5.75L4. SUPREME PATROL+5.75L5. FOX CHEUNGER+7L6. TARGET FINDER+7.25L7. REGENCY POET+8.25L8. MONEYMORE+9L9. VIVA COUNCIL+13.75L10. TELECOM MISSILE+15.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick TREASURE CHEST (27.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TREASURE CHEST 27.0% 3.70 1
2 0 MONEYMORE 14.8% 6.76 8
3 0 REGENCY POET 11.5% 8.66 7
4 0 TELECOM MISSILE 8.9% 11.23 10
5 0 VIVA COUNCIL 8.3% 12.00 9
6 0 FOX CHEUNGER 7.9% 12.67 5
7 0 WAYFOONG CHARMER 7.1% 14.17 3
8 0 SUPREME PATROL 6.7% 14.89 4
9 0 STRATHCLYDE 3.5% 28.51 2
10 0 TARGET FINDER 2.7% 37.18 6
11 0 SKY TREASURE 1.5% 65.10 11
TREASURE CHEST — wonMONEYMOREREGENCY POETTELECOM MISSILEVIVA COUNCILFOX CHEUNGERWAYFOONG CHARMERSUPREME PATROLSTRATHCLYDETARGET FINDERSKY TREASURE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 47.5

PLACE

4 20

5 20.5

11 19.5

QUINELLA

5,11 138.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 69

4,11 64.5

5,11 56.5

FORECAST

11,5 553

TIERCE

11,5,4 1,983

TRIO

4,5,11 326

FIRST 4

4,5,10,11 766

QUARTET

11,5,4,10 16,943

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/5 61

7/11 377

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 19