Sha Tin · 2020-12-06
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-06 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. KA YING EXCELLENT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with E STAR second and HAPPY QIJI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | KA YING EXCELLENT Closed strongly CP/TT 1.21.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 10 | 3.4 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | E STAR Closed strongly H N Callan · K L Man | N Callan | K L Man | 3 | 6.2 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | HAPPY QIJI Closed strongly H/TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 11 | 284.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | IGNITING B1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 7.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | AMAZING NEWS Closed strongly TT1 C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 6 | 46.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | SMOOTHIES B/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 5 | 6.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | MISSION TYCOON B/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 1 | 18.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | CELESTIAL POWER Closed strongly B K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 8 | 14.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | LEAP OF FAITH B1 A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 7 | 8.1 | 7 |
| 10 | 10 | SHOUSON B C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 13 | 141.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | PRIME MINISTER Led early V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 14 | 167.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 12 | 106.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL H N Wong · D A Hayes | H N Wong | D A Hayes | 2 | 293.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 14 | 7 | CHICKEN DANCE CP A Badel · P O'Sullivan | A Badel | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 5.9 | 10-1/2 |
| — | 0 | GAMEPLAYER TIMES K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | KA YING EXCELLENT | 19.9% | 5.02 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | E STAR | 15.9% | 6.31 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | CHICKEN DANCE | 14.9% | 6.73 | 14 |
| 4 | 9 | IGNITING | 8.9% | 11.21 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | LEAP OF FAITH | 7.7% | 12.93 | 9 |
| 6 | 6 | CELESTIAL POWER | 7.4% | 13.57 | 8 |
| 7 | 12 | MISSION TYCOON | 7.3% | 13.62 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 | SMOOTHIES | 4.9% | 20.21 | 6 |
| 9 | 5 | AMAZING NEWS | 4.8% | 20.65 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | SHOUSON | 4.0% | 24.84 | 10 |
| 11 | 2 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 1.6% | 63.80 | 12 |
| 12 | 3 | PRIME MINISTER | 1.4% | 69.84 | 11 |
| 13 | 14 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL | 0.6% | 158.36 | 13 |
| 14 | 8 | HAPPY QIJI | 0.6% | 173.72 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
13 34
PLACE
1 19
8 466
13 15
QUINELLA
1,13 112.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 1,791
1,13 42
8,13 947.5
FORECAST
13,1 203
TIERCE
13,1,8 14,483
TRIO
1,8,13 3,338
FIRST 4
1,8,9,13 5,344
QUARTET
13,1,8,9 115,713
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 23
5TH DOUBLE
2/1 26.5
2/13 177.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,10,13/1,2,11/Any Combination 26,748