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Sha Tin · 2020-12-06

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-06 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. AMAZING CHOCOLATE, ridden by V Borges and trained by A T Millard, won by N, with WILL POWER second and RED DESERT third. The 3.2 favourite WILL POWER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.29
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 AMAZING CHOCOLATE B 1.08.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · A T Millard 6 28.0 N
2 1 WILL POWER XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 7 3.2 N
3 3 RED DESERT C Schofield · J Size 11 6.3 2
4 8 LOBO'S LEGEND K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 3 21.0 2-1/4
5 6 MEGA HEART XB/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang 12 33.0 4
6 4 ENCORE BOY B J Moreira · P F Yiu 9 7.5 4
7 5 MASSIVE POCKET XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 27.0 4-1/4
8 11 SMART LEADER B/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 5 16.0 5
9 12 SUNNY BOY B/TT T Piccone · W Y So 10 38.0 6
10 10 GUY DRAGON XB/TT A Badel · C Fownes 2 14.0 6-1/2
11 2 WINNER SUPREME C Wong · Y S Tsui 1 3.8 11-3/4
12 7 LARSON CP/TT K H Chan · F C Lor 8 22.0 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING CHOCOLATE2. WILL POWER+0.05L3. RED DESERT+2L4. LOBO'S LEGEND+2.25L5. MEGA HEART+4L6. ENCORE BOY+4L7. MASSIVE POCKET+4.25L8. SMART LEADER+5L9. SUNNY BOY+6L10. GUY DRAGON+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick WILL POWER (19.3%) finished 2nd — the winner AMAZING CHOCOLATE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 WILL POWER 19.3% 5.18 2
2 11 SMART LEADER 15.9% 6.28 8
3 10 GUY DRAGON 13.8% 7.23 10
4 4 ENCORE BOY 10.5% 9.53 6
5 3 RED DESERT 6.4% 15.73 3
6 8 LOBO'S LEGEND 6.0% 16.61 4
7 2 WINNER SUPREME 5.7% 17.59 11
8 5 MASSIVE POCKET 5.6% 18.00 7
9 7 LARSON 4.9% 20.22 12
10 9 AMAZING CHOCOLATE 4.5% 22.34 1
11 6 MEGA HEART 4.2% 23.98 5
12 12 SUNNY BOY 3.2% 30.85 9
WILL POWERSMART LEADERGUY DRAGONENCORE BOYRED DESERTLOBO'S LEGENDWINNER SUPREMEMASSIVE POCKETLARSONAMAZING CHOCOLATE — wonMEGA HEARTSUNNY BOY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 287

PLACE

1 13.5

3 22

9 82

QUINELLA

1,9 486.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 42.5

1,9 124.5

3,9 340

FORECAST

9,1 1,509

TIERCE

9,1,3 9,563

TRIO

1,3,9 942

FIRST 4

1,3,8,9 3,278

QUARTET

9,1,3,8 89,249

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 36

A1

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

6,8,9/1,3,9 405,536

9TH DOUBLE

8/1 532.5

8/9 13,631

SIX UP

1,2/1,13/1,3/5,6/8,9/1,9 1,790

2 [K Teetan]

TREBLE

6/8/1 4,282

6/8/9 67,183