Sha Tin · 2020-12-06
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-06 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. AMAZING CHOCOLATE, ridden by V Borges and trained by A T Millard, won by N, with WILL POWER second and RED DESERT third. The 3.2 favourite WILL POWER finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE B 1.08.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · A T Millard | V Borges | A T Millard | 6 | 28.0 | N |
| 2 | 1 | WILL POWER XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 7 | 3.2 | N |
| 3 | 3 | RED DESERT C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 11 | 6.3 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | LOBO'S LEGEND K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 21.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | MEGA HEART XB/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 12 | 33.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 4 | ENCORE BOY B J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 9 | 7.5 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | MASSIVE POCKET XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 27.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | SMART LEADER B/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 5 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | SUNNY BOY B/TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 10 | 38.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | GUY DRAGON XB/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 2 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | WINNER SUPREME C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 1 | 3.8 | 11-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | LARSON CP/TT K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 8 | 22.0 | 13-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WILL POWER | 19.3% | 5.18 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | SMART LEADER | 15.9% | 6.28 | 8 |
| 3 | 10 | GUY DRAGON | 13.8% | 7.23 | 10 |
| 4 | 4 | ENCORE BOY | 10.5% | 9.53 | 6 |
| 5 | 3 | RED DESERT | 6.4% | 15.73 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | LOBO'S LEGEND | 6.0% | 16.61 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | WINNER SUPREME | 5.7% | 17.59 | 11 |
| 8 | 5 | MASSIVE POCKET | 5.6% | 18.00 | 7 |
| 9 | 7 | LARSON | 4.9% | 20.22 | 12 |
| 10 | 9 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE | 4.5% | 22.34 | 1 |
| 11 | 6 | MEGA HEART | 4.2% | 23.98 | 5 |
| 12 | 12 | SUNNY BOY | 3.2% | 30.85 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 287
PLACE
1 13.5
3 22
9 82
QUINELLA
1,9 486.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 42.5
1,9 124.5
3,9 340
FORECAST
9,1 1,509
TIERCE
9,1,3 9,563
TRIO
1,3,9 942
FIRST 4
1,3,8,9 3,278
QUARTET
9,1,3,8 89,249
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 36
A1 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
6,8,9/1,3,9 405,536
9TH DOUBLE
8/1 532.5
8/9 13,631
SIX UP
1,2/1,13/1,3/5,6/8,9/1,9 1,790
2 [K Teetan] —
TREBLE
6/8/1 4,282
6/8/9 67,183