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Sha Tin · 2020-12-06

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. GOLFMAN STAR, ridden by K H Chan and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with HAPPY TANGO second and DEMONS ROCK third. The 3.8 favourite WAR LORD finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 GOLFMAN STAR 1.09.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · F C Lor 3 5.5 N
2 12 HAPPY TANGO XB-/B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 7 12.0 N
3 10 DEMONS ROCK B H T Mo · D J Hall 11 40.0 1-3/4
4 9 WAR LORD P J Moreira · J Size 4 3.8 3-1/2
5 8 DOLLAR REWARD P/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum 5 17.0 3-3/4
6 4 GOLD COMET CP C Schofield · A T Millard 9 3.9 6
7 6 WINNING VOLATILITY B1 K C Leung · K W Lui 6 48.0 6-1/4
8 1 TELECOM PUMA H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 6.4 9-1/2
9 5 RAINBOW LIGHT XB1/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 2 69.0 11-3/4
10 11 AFRICAN SKY XB-/B/TT H W Lai · T P Yung 1 172.0 12-1/2
11 7 JOYFUL MOMENTS B T Piccone · C W Chang 12 42.0 15
12 3 CAPSULE KING N Callan · C H Yip 8 7.6 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLFMAN STAR2. HAPPY TANGO+0.05L3. DEMONS ROCK+1.75L4. WAR LORD+3.5L5. DOLLAR REWARD+3.75L6. GOLD COMET+6L7. WINNING VOLATILITY+6.25L8. TELECOM PUMA+9.5L9. RAINBOW LIGHT+11.75L10. AFRICAN SKY+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick WAR LORD (29.3%) finished 4th — the winner GOLFMAN STAR was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 WAR LORD 29.3% 3.41 4
2 5 RAINBOW LIGHT 13.8% 7.24 9
3 12 HAPPY TANGO 9.1% 10.97 2
4 1 TELECOM PUMA 7.3% 13.77 8
5 8 DOLLAR REWARD 7.2% 13.80 5
6 2 GOLFMAN STAR 6.9% 14.40 1
7 10 DEMONS ROCK 6.2% 16.13 3
8 4 GOLD COMET 5.8% 17.27 6
9 7 JOYFUL MOMENTS 4.6% 21.71 11
10 3 CAPSULE KING 4.4% 22.67 12
11 6 WINNING VOLATILITY 3.3% 29.90 7
12 11 AFRICAN SKY 2.0% 50.62 10
WAR LORDRAINBOW LIGHTHAPPY TANGOTELECOM PUMADOLLAR REWARDGOLFMAN STAR — wonDEMONS ROCKGOLD COMETJOYFUL MOMENTSCAPSULE KINGWINNING VOLATILITYAFRICAN SKY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 55

PLACE

2 18.5

10 90.5

12 30.5

QUINELLA

2,12 396

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 309

2,12 120

10,12 504.5

FORECAST

2,12 642

TIERCE

2,12,10 15,868

TRIO

2,10,12 4,624

FIRST 4

2,9,10,12 3,064

QUARTET

2,12,10,9 68,225

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

11/2 452.5

11/12 133.5

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 24

A3