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Sha Tin · 2020-12-06

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. EXCELLENT CHARIOT, ridden by N Callan and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with SOARING TOWER second and VIGOR CHAMP third. The 2.2 favourite SOARING TOWER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 EXCELLENT CHARIOT TT 1.09.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · P F Yiu 4 3.0 SH
2 1 SOARING TOWER K Teetan · W Y So 10 2.2 SH
3 11 VIGOR CHAMP B K C Leung · K H Ting 8 25.0 1/2
4 3 MONSTER KAKA C L Chau · D J Hall 1 21.0 1
5 10 VOYAGE STAR V/TT B Shinn · T P Yung 9 34.0 2
6 8 STAR OF WUYI C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 31.0 2
7 5 MY ECSTATIC TT J Moreira · F C Lor 3 6.0 2-1/2
8 12 ALL BEST FRIENDS T Piccone · K L Man 2 70.0 3-1/2
9 7 SIGHT HERO CP1 A Badel · D A Hayes 6 24.0 3-3/4
10 6 OURGOLDENRULES XB1 V Borges · D J Whyte 7 290.0 4-1/4
11 9 VECTOR H/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 5 21.0 4-3/4
12 4 PACKING MILES B1/TT1 A Hamelin · C S Shum 12 104.0 5-1/4
0 AUGUST MOON A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EXCELLENT CHARIOT2. SOARING TOWER+0.1L3. VIGOR CHAMP+0.5L4. MONSTER KAKA+1L5. VOYAGE STAR+2L6. STAR OF WUYI+2L7. MY ECSTATIC+2.5L8. ALL BEST FRIENDS+3.5L9. SIGHT HERO+3.75L10. OURGOLDENRULES+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SOARING TOWER (28.2%) finished 2nd — the winner EXCELLENT CHARIOT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SOARING TOWER 28.2% 3.55 2
2 2 EXCELLENT CHARIOT 18.3% 5.47 1
3 3 MONSTER KAKA 14.5% 6.88 4
4 5 MY ECSTATIC 10.8% 9.29 7
5 11 VIGOR CHAMP 6.9% 14.40 3
6 8 STAR OF WUYI 4.7% 21.46 6
7 7 SIGHT HERO 4.6% 21.69 9
8 6 OURGOLDENRULES 3.3% 30.54 10
9 4 PACKING MILES 3.2% 31.17 12
10 9 VECTOR 2.5% 39.48 11
11 10 VOYAGE STAR 1.6% 61.71 5
12 12 ALL BEST FRIENDS 1.4% 71.38 8
SOARING TOWEREXCELLENT CHARIOT — wonMONSTER KAKAMY ECSTATICVIGOR CHAMPSTAR OF WUYISIGHT HEROOURGOLDENRULESPACKING MILESVECTORVOYAGE STARALL BEST FRIENDS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 30

PLACE

1 13

2 12.5

11 41.5

QUINELLA

1,2 38

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 18.5

1,11 88

2,11 90

FORECAST

2,1 94

TIERCE

2,1,11 749

TRIO

1,2,11 168

FIRST 4

1,2,3,11 450

QUARTET

2,1,11,3 5,870

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 12.5

4TH DOUBLE

10/1 31

10/2 336.5