沙田 · 2020-12-06
第 4場
2020-12-06沙田第4場，Class 5，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由T Piccone策騎、W Y So訓練的TURF BRILLIANT勝出，贏出2。CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE獲得亞軍；PROUD SKY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.6倍大熱門SHINEALOT跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | TURF BRILLIANT 後段發力 B 1.39.72 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 3 | 8.5 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 4 | 7.1 | 2 |
| 3 | 13 | PROUD SKY 後段發力 V H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 13 | 90.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | SKY GEM 後段發力 C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 11 | 43.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | KEEP WINNING 早段領放 TT C Wong · C W Chang | C Wong | C W Chang | 2 | 8.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | SHINEALOT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 3.6 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | DRAGON COMMANDER 後段發力 H-/B2 J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 7 | 3.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | GENERAL DINO 後段發力 B N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 14 | 17.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | DAILY CHARM B/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 6 | 40.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 9 | SACRED TIMING 後段發力 B V Borges · D A Hayes | V Borges | D A Hayes | 10 | 14.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | THE FULL BLOOM V K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 12 | 37.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 14 | FORTUNE BUDDY B H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 1 | 97.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 13 | 8 | EVER STRONG B C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 8 | 40.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 14 | 1 | BULB ELITE CP A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 9 | 19.0 | 11-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 25.5% | 3.93 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 18.1% | 5.52 | 7 |
| 3 | 7 | SHINEALOT | 10.9% | 9.16 | 6 |
| 4 | 10 | TURF BRILLIANT | 8.1% | 12.30 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | SKY GEM | 6.8% | 14.67 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | BULB ELITE | 4.4% | 22.79 | 14 |
| 7 | 11 | THE FULL BLOOM | 4.3% | 23.17 | 11 |
| 8 | 9 | SACRED TIMING | 4.3% | 23.33 | 10 |
| 9 | 12 | KEEP WINNING | 3.8% | 26.32 | 5 |
| 10 | 5 | DAILY CHARM | 3.4% | 29.45 | 9 |
| 11 | 6 | GENERAL DINO | 3.2% | 31.70 | 8 |
| 12 | 14 | FORTUNE BUDDY | 2.8% | 35.22 | 12 |
| 13 | 8 | EVER STRONG | 2.4% | 41.50 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | PROUD SKY | 2.0% | 51.00 | 3 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 85.5
PLACE
2 27
10 25
13 208
QUINELLA
2,10 355
QUINELLA PLACE
2,10 126
2,13 1,292
10,13 1,623
FORECAST
10,2 831
TIERCE
10,2,13 59,813
TRIO
2,10,13 18,952
FIRST 4
2,4,10,13 76,657
QUARTET
10,2,13,4 1,034,865
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,10,12/2,10,13 1,178,076
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 26.5
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/2 49.5
2/10 440.5