Sha Tin · 2021-04-11

Race 1

Griffin GOOD 1000m Course C 10 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-11 was Griffin over 1000m, run on GOOD going. TURBO POWER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with SMART IDEA second and HK DRAGON third. The 3.6 favourite SMART IDEA finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.96

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	TURBO POWER 0.56.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	5	126 lb	8.0	1
2	9	SMART IDEA J Moreira · F C Lor	J Moreira	F C Lor	3	121 lb	3.6	1
3	4	HK DRAGON B1 C L Chau · D J Whyte	C L Chau	D J Whyte	9	119 lb	7.5	1-1/4
4	6	CHEVAL VALIANT B Shinn · D J Whyte	B Shinn	D J Whyte	7	121 lb	5.5	5
5	7	COMPULSORY A Hamelin · A T Millard	A Hamelin	A T Millard	8	121 lb	28.0	5-1/4
6	1	CHIU CHOW WARRIOR A Badel · K W Lui	A Badel	K W Lui	2	126 lb	9.9	6-1/4
7	8	CORDYCEPS SIX B1 C Schofield · R Gibson	C Schofield	R Gibson	4	121 lb	45.0	6-3/4
8	10	SUPER KINGDOM K Teetan · A T Millard	K Teetan	A T Millard	1	121 lb	9.3	7-1/2
9	2	GREAT KING SR1/TT1 Z Purton · C H Yip	Z Purton	C H Yip	10	126 lb	4.7	11
10	3	HANG'S CHOICE M L Yeung · W Y So	M L Yeung	W Y So	6	126 lb	39.0	15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick SMART IDEA (31.3%) finished 2nd — the winner TURBO POWER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	SMART IDEA	31.3%	3.19	2	3.6
2	2	GREAT KING	22.2%	4.50	9	4.7
3	1	CHIU CHOW WARRIOR	11.2%	8.90	6	9.9
4	10	SUPER KINGDOM	8.2%	12.16	8	9.3
5	5	TURBO POWER	7.0%	14.24	1	8.0
6	7	COMPULSORY	5.6%	18.01	5	28.0
7	4	HK DRAGON	5.2%	19.39	3	7.5
8	8	CORDYCEPS SIX	5.1%	19.47	7	45.0
9	6	CHEVAL VALIANT	2.2%	45.37	4	5.5
10	3	HANG'S CHOICE	1.9%	52.93	10	39.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 80.5

PLACE

4 30

5 22.5

9 16

QUINELLA

5,9 130

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 118

4,9 81.5

5,9 49

FORECAST

5,9 331

TIERCE

5,9,4 3,170

TRIO

4,5,9 523

FIRST 4

4,5,6,9 536

QUARTET

5,9,4,6 14,741

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 22.5

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99