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Sha Tin · 2021-04-11

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MY ECSTATIC, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 2, with SOLAR POWER second and GREEN REIGN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite GREEN REIGN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 MY ECSTATIC Closed strongly TT 1.21.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 11 6.7 2
2 7 SOLAR POWER Closed strongly K Teetan · C H Yip 9 6.1 2
3 1 GREEN REIGN Closed strongly J Moreira · C Fownes 2 3.6 2
4 13 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B R Maia · P F Yiu 6 10.0 2-1/2
5 14 NOBLE MAN B/E/TT V Borges · J Size 14 58.0 3-1/4
6 12 IRON KING H/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 1 6.2 3-1/4
7 9 OFF THE REEL Closed strongly C Schofield · P F Yiu 13 50.0 3-3/4
8 8 LIGHT OF WANSHI TT A Badel · W Y So 3 6.4 4-3/4
9 10 RED BRICK FIGHTER B M F Poon · D J Hall 12 18.0 5-3/4
10 6 RED IMPACT CP C Y Ho · D A Hayes 4 50.0 5-3/4
11 11 BREEZE OF SPRING V2/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 10 14.0 6-1/4
12 3 LITTLE BIRD Led early B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 7 53.0 6-1/2
13 2 UNIVERSAL HERO Closed strongly C L Chau · Y S Tsui 8 144.0 13
14 5 ZELUS B H N Wong · C W Chang 5 106.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MY ECSTATIC2. SOLAR POWER+2L3. GREEN REIGN+2L4. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+2.5L5. NOBLE MAN+3.25L6. IRON KING+3.25L7. OFF THE REEL+3.75L8. LIGHT OF WANSHI+4.75L9. RED BRICK FIGHTER+5.75L10. RED IMPACT+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MY ECSTATIC (25.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MY ECSTATIC 25.6% 3.91 1
2 1 GREEN REIGN 16.5% 6.07 3
3 13 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 13.2% 7.60 4
4 12 IRON KING 8.7% 11.48 6
5 7 SOLAR POWER 8.0% 12.50 2
6 11 BREEZE OF SPRING 6.6% 15.15 11
7 8 LIGHT OF WANSHI 6.0% 16.56 8
8 10 RED BRICK FIGHTER 5.9% 17.03 9
9 14 NOBLE MAN 2.9% 34.08 5
10 9 OFF THE REEL 2.6% 39.05 7
11 6 RED IMPACT 1.9% 53.74 10
12 3 LITTLE BIRD 1.0% 98.60 12
13 2 UNIVERSAL HERO 0.8% 120.85 13
14 5 ZELUS 0.3% 291.90 14
MY ECSTATIC — wonGREEN REIGNWINWIN THIRTYTHREEIRON KINGSOLAR POWERBREEZE OF SPRINGLIGHT OF WANSHIRED BRICK FIGHTERNOBLE MANOFF THE REELRED IMPACTLITTLE BIRDUNIVERSAL HEROZELUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 67

PLACE

1 17

4 22

7 23

QUINELLA

4,7 205

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 64

1,7 53.5

4,7 76

FORECAST

4,7 445

TIERCE

4,7,1 1,887

TRIO

1,4,7 293

FIRST 4

1,4,7,13 762

QUARTET

4,7,1,13 17,729

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 23.5

A3

A2

5TH DOUBLE

5/4 393.5

5/7 68.5