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Sha Tin · 2021-04-11

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MY ECSTATIC Closed strongly TT 1.21.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 11 6.7 2
2 0 SOLAR POWER Closed strongly K Teetan · C H Yip 9 6.1 2
3 0 GREEN REIGN Closed strongly J Moreira · C Fownes 2 3.6 2
4 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B R Maia · P F Yiu 6 10.0 2-1/2
5 0 NOBLE MAN B/E/TT V Borges · J Size 14 58.0 3-1/4
6 0 IRON KING H/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 1 6.2 3-1/4
7 0 OFF THE REEL Closed strongly C Schofield · P F Yiu 13 50.0 3-3/4
8 0 LIGHT OF WANSHI TT A Badel · W Y So 3 6.4 4-3/4
9 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER B M F Poon · D J Hall 12 18.0 5-3/4
10 0 RED IMPACT CP C Y Ho · D A Hayes 4 50.0 5-3/4
11 0 BREEZE OF SPRING V2/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 10 14.0 6-1/4
12 0 LITTLE BIRD Led early B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 7 53.0 6-1/2
13 0 UNIVERSAL HERO Closed strongly C L Chau · Y S Tsui 8 144.0 13
14 0 ZELUS B H N Wong · C W Chang 5 106.0 14-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MY ECSTATIC, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 2, with SOLAR POWER second and GREEN REIGN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite GREEN REIGN finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MY ECSTATIC—2. SOLAR POWER+2L3. GREEN REIGN+2L4. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+2.5L5. NOBLE MAN+3.25L6. IRON KING+3.25L7. OFF THE REEL+3.75L8. LIGHT OF WANSHI+4.75L9. RED BRICK FIGHTER+5.75L10. RED IMPACT+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MY ECSTATIC (25.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MY ECSTATIC 25.6% 3.91 1
2 0 GREEN REIGN 16.5% 6.07 3
3 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 13.2% 7.60 4
4 0 IRON KING 8.7% 11.48 6
5 0 SOLAR POWER 8.0% 12.50 2
6 0 BREEZE OF SPRING 6.6% 15.15 11
7 0 LIGHT OF WANSHI 6.0% 16.56 8
8 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER 5.9% 17.03 9
9 0 NOBLE MAN 2.9% 34.08 5
10 0 OFF THE REEL 2.6% 39.05 7
11 0 RED IMPACT 1.9% 53.74 10
12 0 LITTLE BIRD 1.0% 98.60 12
13 0 UNIVERSAL HERO 0.8% 120.85 13
14 0 ZELUS 0.3% 291.90 14
MY ECSTATIC — wonGREEN REIGNWINWIN THIRTYTHREEIRON KINGSOLAR POWERBREEZE OF SPRINGLIGHT OF WANSHIRED BRICK FIGHTERNOBLE MANOFF THE REELRED IMPACTLITTLE BIRDUNIVERSAL HEROZELUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 67

PLACE

1 17

4 22

7 23

QUINELLA

4,7 205

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 64

1,7 53.5

4,7 76

FORECAST

4,7 445

TIERCE

4,7,1 1,887

TRIO

1,4,7 293

FIRST 4

1,4,7,13 762

QUARTET

4,7,1,13 17,729

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 23.5

A3 —

A2 —

5TH DOUBLE

5/4 393.5

5/7 68.5