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Sha Tin · 2021-04-11

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GLUCK RACER, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by N, with VICTORY SCHOLARS second and RHAPSODY third. The 3.7 favourite RHAPSODY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 GLUCK RACER 1.09.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man 7 5.2 N
2 8 VICTORY SCHOLARS M F Poon · D J Hall 11 6.9 N
3 7 RHAPSODY J Moreira · J Size 3 3.7 3/4
4 1 SHADOW RUNNER B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 5 14.0 3/4
5 4 GALLANT CAVALIER B C L Chau · A T Millard 1 63.0 2-3/4
6 3 DIVINE ERA H/XB K Teetan · K H Ting 4 4.9 4-1/4
7 11 TRAVEL GLORY R Maia · C W Chang 2 18.0 5-3/4
8 6 LOVE ME MORE K C Leung · P F Yiu 10 85.0 6-1/4
9 9 BRANDING POWER B-/PC1/TT1 Z Purton · K W Lui 12 4.4 8-1/4
10 10 TOWARDS SUCCESS H H W Lai · W Y So 8 236.0 8-3/4
11 12 SMART HUNTER B/XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte 9 68.0 9-1/4
12 2 ALMIGHTY PEGASUS A Hamelin · C H Yip 6 111.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLUCK RACER2. VICTORY SCHOLARS+0.05L3. RHAPSODY+0.75L4. SHADOW RUNNER+0.75L5. GALLANT CAVALIER+2.75L6. DIVINE ERA+4.25L7. TRAVEL GLORY+5.75L8. LOVE ME MORE+6.25L9. BRANDING POWER+8.25L10. TOWARDS SUCCESS+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick DIVINE ERA (19.9%) finished 6th — the winner GLUCK RACER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 DIVINE ERA 19.9% 5.02 6
2 7 RHAPSODY 18.6% 5.37 3
3 9 BRANDING POWER 17.5% 5.71 9
4 1 SHADOW RUNNER 14.3% 6.98 4
5 5 GLUCK RACER 7.3% 13.79 1
6 2 ALMIGHTY PEGASUS 6.7% 14.94 12
7 11 TRAVEL GLORY 5.5% 18.13 7
8 8 VICTORY SCHOLARS 4.5% 22.04 2
9 12 SMART HUNTER 2.0% 48.94 11
10 6 LOVE ME MORE 1.7% 58.47 8
11 4 GALLANT CAVALIER 1.1% 91.22 5
12 10 TOWARDS SUCCESS 0.8% 127.01 10
DIVINE ERARHAPSODYBRANDING POWERSHADOW RUNNERGLUCK RACER — wonALMIGHTY PEGASUSTRAVEL GLORYVICTORY SCHOLARSSMART HUNTERLOVE ME MOREGALLANT CAVALIERTOWARDS SUCCESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 52

PLACE

5 17

7 17.5

8 24

QUINELLA

5,8 169.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 50

5,8 64.5

7,8 60

FORECAST

5,8 315

TIERCE

5,8,7 2,000

TRIO

5,7,8 372

FIRST 4

1,5,7,8 595

QUARTET

5,8,7,1 14,888

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,12/5,7,8 1,701,869

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 20.5

4TH DOUBLE

8/5 601

8/8 239.5