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Sha Tin · 2021-04-11

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GALAXY EMPEROR Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.22.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · A S Cruz 12 9.5 1/2
2 0 KUNG FU TEA Closed strongly SR K C Leung · D J Hall 13 6.4 1/2
3 0 VICTORIOUS LEADER Closed strongly Z Purton · C H Yip 3 4.9 1-3/4
4 0 SPICY GRILL Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · K W Lui 14 9.4 2-1/4
5 0 APOLAR WARRIOR Closed strongly V V Borges · P F Yiu 9 13.0 2-3/4
6 0 WINNER'S HEART Led early M F Poon · F C Lor 4 25.0 3
7 0 DESTIN Closed strongly B J Moreira · P O'Sullivan 2 3.9 3-3/4
8 0 SURE WIN WIN Closed strongly B2 C Schofield · T P Yung 10 15.0 4-1/4
9 0 ALLOY KING B C Y Ho · K H Ting 1 10.0 4-1/4
10 0 M M JOHNNY Closed strongly B A Badel · Y S Tsui 8 19.0 4-1/4
11 0 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT B/TT H T Mo · L Ho 6 55.0 7-1/4
12 0 MONEYMORE Closed strongly V-/CP2 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 11 39.0 8
13 0 HAPPY RUBY H-/P-/XB/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard 7 170.0 10-1/4
14 0 JOYFUL MOMENTS R Maia · C W Chang 5 63.0 10-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-11 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GALAXY EMPEROR, ridden by C L Chau and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with KUNG FU TEA second and VICTORIOUS LEADER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite DESTIN finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALAXY EMPEROR—2. KUNG FU TEA+0.5L3. VICTORIOUS LEADER+1.75L4. SPICY GRILL+2.25L5. APOLAR WARRIOR+2.75L6. WINNER'S HEART+3L7. DESTIN+3.75L8. SURE WIN WIN+4.25L9. ALLOY KING+4.25L10. M M JOHNNY+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick DESTIN (25.9%) finished 7th — the winner GALAXY EMPEROR was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 DESTIN 25.9% 3.86 7
2 0 VICTORIOUS LEADER 17.6% 5.67 3
3 0 WINNER'S HEART 11.1% 8.98 6
4 0 SPICY GRILL 6.1% 16.31 4
5 0 ALLOY KING 5.7% 17.61 9
6 0 GALAXY EMPEROR 5.3% 19.05 1
7 0 KUNG FU TEA 5.1% 19.60 2
8 0 SURE WIN WIN 4.8% 20.79 8
9 0 APOLAR WARRIOR 4.4% 22.67 5
10 0 MONEYMORE 4.2% 23.69 12
11 0 M M JOHNNY 4.0% 25.04 10
12 0 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT 3.0% 33.22 11
13 0 JOYFUL MOMENTS 2.1% 46.97 14
14 0 HAPPY RUBY 0.6% 178.86 13
DESTINVICTORIOUS LEADERWINNER'S HEARTSPICY GRILLALLOY KINGGALAXY EMPEROR — wonKUNG FU TEASURE WIN WINAPOLAR WARRIORMONEYMOREM M JOHNNYLAOS ENLIGHTENMENTJOYFUL MOMENTSHAPPY RUBY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 95

PLACE

2 26.5

5 24

13 18.5

QUINELLA

2,5 276.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 108.5

2,13 90

5,13 74

FORECAST

2,5 679

TIERCE

2,5,13 2,808

TRIO

2,5,13 484

FIRST 4

2,5,12,13 1,885

QUARTET

2,5,13,12 39,145

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/2 428

3/5 88

3 PICK 1

A2 31

A1 —

A3 —