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Sha Tin · 2021-04-11

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FANTASTIC TREASURE Closed strongly 1.21.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · D A Hayes 3 3.1 N
2 0 PERFECT PAIR Closed strongly SR C Y Ho · K H Ting 9 16.0 N
3 0 WINNING METHOD Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum 1 6.0 1/2
4 0 TRUE LEGEND Led early B K Teetan · F C Lor 4 5.8 3/4
5 0 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E J Moreira · J Size 6 3.7 2-1/4
6 0 STAR PERFORMANCE Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 22.0 3-1/4
7 0 MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B A Badel · K W Lui 5 105.0 4
8 0 LEWIS B-/XB/V1/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 2 9.2 4-1/4
9 0 STOICISM B Shinn · D E Ferraris 8 42.0 4-1/2
10 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT B K C Leung · K L Man 10 33.0 4-3/4
11 0 PASSING FASHION H H N Wong · C H Yip 11 200.0 9-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-11 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FANTASTIC TREASURE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with PERFECT PAIR second and WINNING METHOD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FANTASTIC TREASURE—2. PERFECT PAIR+0.05L3. WINNING METHOD+0.5L4. TRUE LEGEND+0.75L5. BEAUTY FIT+2.25L6. STAR PERFORMANCE+3.25L7. MEANINGFUL STAR+4L8. LEWIS+4.25L9. STOICISM+4.5L10. COMPASSION SPIRIT+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BEAUTY FIT (27.3%) finished 5th — the winner FANTASTIC TREASURE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY FIT 27.3% 3.66 5
2 0 FANTASTIC TREASURE 20.6% 4.85 1
3 0 WINNING METHOD 18.9% 5.29 3
4 0 TRUE LEGEND 14.1% 7.07 4
5 0 LEWIS 6.4% 15.74 8
6 0 STAR PERFORMANCE 4.5% 21.98 6
7 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT 3.5% 28.63 10
8 0 PERFECT PAIR 2.4% 41.98 2
9 0 STOICISM 1.2% 84.28 9
10 0 MEANINGFUL STAR 0.8% 132.46 7
11 0 PASSING FASHION 0.3% 323.37 11
BEAUTY FITFANTASTIC TREASURE — wonWINNING METHODTRUE LEGENDLEWISSTAR PERFORMANCECOMPASSION SPIRITPERFECT PAIRSTOICISMMEANINGFUL STARPASSING FASHION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 31

PLACE

1 18.5

5 16

11 34.5

QUINELLA

5,11 315

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 41.5

1,11 135

5,11 106

FORECAST

5,11 311

TIERCE

5,11,1 2,058

TRIO

1,5,11 489

FIRST 4

1,5,10,11 424

QUARTET

5,11,1,10 6,602

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 17

A2 —

9TH DOUBLE

10/5 79.5

10/11 70.5