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Sha Tin · 2021-04-11

Race 11

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-11 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HINCHINLOVE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by T P Yung, won by 3/4, with ROMAN TURBO second and SILVER EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite SILVER EXPRESS finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 HINCHINLOVE Closed strongly B/TT 1.21.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · T P Yung 6 19.0 3/4
2 8 ROMAN TURBO Closed strongly SR/TT A Badel · C S Shum 12 6.7 3/4
3 6 SILVER EXPRESS Closed strongly B J Moreira · J Size 3 2.1 3/4
4 3 SUPER WEALTHY H/XB/CP1 Z Purton · D J Whyte 14 10.0 3/4
5 1 NOT USUAL TALENT Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 8 8.9 3/4
6 7 HIGHLY PROACTIVE Led early H/P/TT K Teetan · K W Lui 5 11.0 1-1/2
7 12 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly V/TT V Borges · W Y So 4 52.0 2-1/4
8 10 FLAGSHIP GLORY Closed strongly H- K C Leung · F C Lor 9 10.0 2-1/4
9 11 GUY DRAGON XB/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 1 17.0 2-3/4
10 2 SHINING GEM CP C Y Ho · P F Yiu 10 58.0 3-3/4
11 5 RACING FIGHTER B/TT R Maia · C H Yip 2 75.0 4-1/2
12 4 GOLD CHEST Closed strongly CP/TT M F Poon · R Gibson 13 79.0 5-3/4
13 9 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H-/XB/B1 A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 7 79.0 6-1/2
14 14 SUPER BUDDY B H T Mo · D A Hayes 11 160.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HINCHINLOVE2. ROMAN TURBO+0.75L3. SILVER EXPRESS+0.75L4. SUPER WEALTHY+0.75L5. NOT USUAL TALENT+0.75L6. HIGHLY PROACTIVE+1.5L7. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+2.25L8. FLAGSHIP GLORY+2.25L9. GUY DRAGON+2.75L10. SHINING GEM+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SILVER EXPRESS (20.5%) finished 3rd — the winner HINCHINLOVE was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 SILVER EXPRESS 20.5% 4.88 3
2 8 ROMAN TURBO 13.7% 7.28 2
3 10 FLAGSHIP GLORY 12.9% 7.77 8
4 3 SUPER WEALTHY 10.4% 9.64 4
5 7 HIGHLY PROACTIVE 9.2% 10.84 6
6 11 GUY DRAGON 7.7% 12.99 9
7 13 HINCHINLOVE 6.8% 14.60 1
8 12 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 4.7% 21.47 7
9 1 NOT USUAL TALENT 4.3% 23.50 5
10 5 RACING FIGHTER 3.2% 31.30 11
11 2 SHINING GEM 2.2% 46.19 10
12 9 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 1.7% 59.69 13
13 4 GOLD CHEST 1.4% 70.79 12
14 14 SUPER BUDDY 1.4% 71.23 14
SILVER EXPRESSROMAN TURBOFLAGSHIP GLORYSUPER WEALTHYHIGHLY PROACTIVEGUY DRAGONHINCHINLOVE — wonINVINCIBLE MISSILENOT USUAL TALENTRACING FIGHTERSHINING GEMARTHUR'S KINGDOMGOLD CHESTSUPER BUDDY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 197.5

PLACE

6 13

8 21

13 42.5

QUINELLA

8,13 564.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 33.5

6,13 75

8,13 144.5

FORECAST

13,8 1,557

TIERCE

13,8,6 4,593

TRIO

6,8,13 340

FIRST 4

3,6,8,13 1,001

QUARTET

13,8,6,3 43,884

All pools (5 more)

10TH DOUBLE

5/8 40

5/13 999

3 PICK 1

A3 32

A2

A1

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,11/6,8,13 33,302

SIX UP

4/2/2/10/5/13 656,511

4,7/2,9/2,5/3,10/5,11/8,13 5,070

1 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

10/5/8 106

10/5/13 3,070