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Sha Tin · 2021-04-11

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course C 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-11 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. LOOKING GREAT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with CALIFORNIA TEN second and CHAMPION SUPREME third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.46.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 LOOKING GREAT Closed strongly 1.46.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 3 2.5 1-3/4
2 3 CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 12 19.0 1-3/4
3 8 CHAMPION SUPREME Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui 1 23.0 2
4 9 RIGHT CHOICE B B Shinn · F C Lor 6 10.0 4-1/4
5 6 VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT C Y Ho · D J Whyte 11 9.8 5-1/2
6 4 ALPHA HEDGE CP V Borges · K W Lui 2 80.0 5-3/4
7 12 PAKISTAN FRIEND Led early TT A Badel · W Y So 4 5.3 5-3/4
8 11 GOD OF DRAGON Closed strongly H/XB/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 15.0 8
9 5 BELUGA H Z Purton · D J Hall 10 5.4 9-1/2
10 1 TASHIDELEK B C L Chau · D J Whyte 8 40.0 11-1/4
11 2 CINQUANTE CINQ K H Chan · T P Yung 13 73.0 11-1/2
12 13 MURRAY'S PARTNERS V- H N Wong · C H Yip 5 97.0 15-1/2
13 7 BLASTOISE CP A Hamelin · D E Ferraris 9 38.0 17-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LOOKING GREAT2. CALIFORNIA TEN+1.75L3. CHAMPION SUPREME+2L4. RIGHT CHOICE+4.25L5. VINCY+5.5L6. ALPHA HEDGE+5.75L7. PAKISTAN FRIEND+5.75L8. GOD OF DRAGON+8L9. BELUGA+9.5L10. TASHIDELEK+11.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick LOOKING GREAT (37.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 LOOKING GREAT 37.4% 2.67 1
2 12 PAKISTAN FRIEND 16.4% 6.10 7
3 5 BELUGA 14.2% 7.04 9
4 6 VINCY 5.4% 18.41 5
5 9 RIGHT CHOICE 4.8% 20.64 4
6 7 BLASTOISE 3.8% 26.38 13
7 2 CINQUANTE CINQ 3.1% 32.44 11
8 11 GOD OF DRAGON 3.0% 33.49 8
9 3 CALIFORNIA TEN 2.9% 34.36 2
10 4 ALPHA HEDGE 2.8% 35.51 6
11 1 TASHIDELEK 2.7% 37.40 10
12 8 CHAMPION SUPREME 2.4% 42.02 3
13 13 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 1.1% 93.63 12
LOOKING GREAT — wonPAKISTAN FRIENDBELUGAVINCYRIGHT CHOICEBLASTOISECINQUANTE CINQGOD OF DRAGONCALIFORNIA TENALPHA HEDGETASHIDELEKCHAMPION SUPREMEMURRAY'S PARTNERS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 25

PLACE

3 51

8 60

10 12.5

QUINELLA

3,10 224.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 632.5

3,10 85

8,10 105

FORECAST

10,3 309

TIERCE

10,3,8 4,778

TRIO

3,8,10 1,731

FIRST 4

3,8,9,10 2,945

QUARTET

10,3,8,9 45,598

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 17

8TH DOUBLE

2/3 50.5

2/10 30