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Sha Tin · 2021-04-11

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-11 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. DRAGON BABY, ridden by C Schofield and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with HAPPY GOOD GUYS second and ISLAND SUNSHINE third. The 2.4 favourite HUGE TIGER finished 12th.

Result

Official · 0.56.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 DRAGON BABY TT1 0.56.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · J Size 5 7.9 3/4
2 1 HAPPY GOOD GUYS B H N Wong · P F Yiu 4 44.0 3/4
3 12 ISLAND SUNSHINE V-/PC1 K Teetan · K W Lui 1 124.0 2-1/4
4 10 SUGAMO TT1 J Moreira · C Fownes 10 4.0 2-1/4
5 2 POISED TO STRIKE XB-/CP1 B Shinn · D A Hayes 7 19.0 2-1/2
6 4 CORRIENTHES SR R Maia · D E Ferraris 12 103.0 2-1/2
7 13 SPARKLING DOLPHIN H T Mo · Y S Tsui 14 17.0 2-3/4
8 3 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED V C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 10.0 2-3/4
9 6 CHIU CHOW BROTHER CP1 A Badel · T P Yung 6 11.0 3-3/4
10 5 GOKO B/XB/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 9 11.0 5
11 14 FARIBAULT CP M F Poon · P O'Sullivan 8 116.0 5-3/4
12 9 HUGE TIGER B1/TT1 Z Purton · C S Shum 11 2.4 5-3/4
13 11 JUMBO ENGINE B-/XB- C Wong · R Gibson 13 179.0 8-1/4
14 7 CORDYCEPS FIVE V Borges · K H Ting 2 147.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON BABY2. HAPPY GOOD GUYS+0.75L3. ISLAND SUNSHINE+2.25L4. SUGAMO+2.25L5. POISED TO STRIKE+2.5L6. CORRIENTHES+2.5L7. SPARKLING DOLPHIN+2.75L8. TAKE WHAT YOU NEED+2.75L9. CHIU CHOW BROTHER+3.75L10. GOKO+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick HUGE TIGER (25.7%) finished 12th — the winner DRAGON BABY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 HUGE TIGER 25.7% 3.88 12
2 10 SUGAMO 20.4% 4.89 4
3 3 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED 14.0% 7.16 8
4 8 DRAGON BABY 8.5% 11.71 1
5 5 GOKO 7.3% 13.61 10
6 13 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 5.8% 17.24 7
7 7 CORDYCEPS FIVE 4.1% 24.32 14
8 6 CHIU CHOW BROTHER 3.8% 26.56 9
9 14 FARIBAULT 2.1% 47.80 11
10 2 POISED TO STRIKE 2.1% 48.49 5
11 1 HAPPY GOOD GUYS 1.9% 51.59 2
12 12 ISLAND SUNSHINE 1.9% 53.42 3
13 4 CORRIENTHES 1.2% 82.09 6
14 11 JUMBO ENGINE 1.1% 91.75 13
HUGE TIGERSUGAMOTAKE WHAT YOU NEEDDRAGON BABY — wonGOKOSPARKLING DOLPHINCORDYCEPS FIVECHIU CHOW BROTHERFARIBAULTPOISED TO STRIKEHAPPY GOOD GUYSISLAND SUNSHINECORRIENTHESJUMBO ENGINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 79

PLACE

1 93.5

8 26.5

12 236.5

QUINELLA

1,8 1,725.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 478.5

1,12 2,701

8,12 1,319.5

FORECAST

8,1 2,108

TIERCE

8,1,12 124,207

TRIO

1,8,12 40,270

FIRST 4

1,8,10,12 29,308

QUARTET

8,1,12,10 1,137,690

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 31

A1

A2

3RD DOUBLE

2/1 576.5

2/8 1,809