Sha Tin · 2021-04-17
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-17 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ALLOY STAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by N, with UNIVERSAL CROWN second and GOLDEN MISSION third. The 4.8 favourite REGENCY POET finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | ALLOY STAR B 1.10.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 5 | 5.6 | N |
| 2 | 5 | UNIVERSAL CROWN CP-/XB/B1/TT2 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 10 | 19.0 | N |
| 3 | 9 | GOLDEN MISSION B T Piccone · C W Chang | T Piccone | C W Chang | 12 | 9.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | SPICY GRILL H/B2/TT V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 11 | 9.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | MOON PEAKS B/H H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 6 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | VEGA RHYTHM B/H M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 2 | 7.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | REGENCY POET B/TT J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 7 | 4.8 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | FOR FUN'S SAKE B-/SR1/TT- C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 9 | 40.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 1 | SMART CHARADE B/H/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 1 | 7.6 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | TELECOM MISSILE B H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 4 | 9.3 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE PC-/B2 C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 3 | 20.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | GO BALLISTIC SR-/B2/TT A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 8 | 30.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | ALLOY STAR | 27.4% | 3.65 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | REGENCY POET | 13.8% | 7.23 | 7 |
| 3 | 1 | SMART CHARADE | 9.2% | 10.86 | 9 |
| 4 | 3 | MOON PEAKS | 7.9% | 12.70 | 5 |
| 5 | 6 | SPICY GRILL | 7.2% | 13.89 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE | 6.6% | 15.24 | 11 |
| 7 | 11 | VEGA RHYTHM | 6.1% | 16.49 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | GO BALLISTIC | 5.9% | 16.97 | 12 |
| 9 | 9 | GOLDEN MISSION | 5.8% | 17.27 | 3 |
| 10 | 5 | UNIVERSAL CROWN | 4.0% | 25.31 | 2 |
| 11 | 7 | TELECOM MISSILE | 3.8% | 26.23 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | FOR FUN'S SAKE | 2.4% | 41.10 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 56.5
PLACE
5 75
8 20.5
9 30
QUINELLA
5,8 742
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 250.5
5,9 416
8,9 106
FORECAST
8,5 1,344
TIERCE
8,5,9 19,768
TRIO
5,8,9 2,712
FIRST 4
5,6,8,9 6,412
QUARTET
8,5,9,6 157,563
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 26
A3 —
A2 —