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Sha Tin · 2021-04-17

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-17 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. CARROLL STREET, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with METRO WARRIOR second and EIGHT TRIGRAMS third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 CARROLL STREET XB 0.56.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · D J Whyte 9 2.0 N
2 4 METRO WARRIOR B Z Purton · D A Hayes 6 7.2 N
3 7 EIGHT TRIGRAMS B H T Mo · D J Hall 10 35.0 3/4
4 1 WHEN YOU BELIEVE CP/TT A Hamelin · F C Lor 4 5.2 1-1/4
5 6 SUPER WIN DRAGON H1 K Teetan · W Y So 8 9.4 5-1/4
6 9 CIRCUIT SEVEN H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 1 73.0 5-1/2
7 2 ELON J Moreira · J Size 5 6.1 6-1/2
8 5 FLYING HIGH T Piccone · W Y So 3 18.0 7-1/2
9 10 GOOD LUCK CHARM H V Borges · P F Yiu 7 128.0 13-3/4
10 3 SHINY ONE B K C Leung · P F Yiu 2 79.0 16-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CARROLL STREET2. METRO WARRIOR+0.05L3. EIGHT TRIGRAMS+0.75L4. WHEN YOU BELIEVE+1.25L5. SUPER WIN DRAGON+5.25L6. CIRCUIT SEVEN+5.5L7. ELON+6.5L8. FLYING HIGH+7.5L9. GOOD LUCK CHARM+13.75L10. SHINY ONE+16.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick WHEN YOU BELIEVE (33.6%) finished 4th — the winner CARROLL STREET was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 WHEN YOU BELIEVE 33.6% 2.97 4
2 4 METRO WARRIOR 19.7% 5.08 2
3 2 ELON 16.9% 5.91 7
4 8 CARROLL STREET 14.1% 7.11 1
5 5 FLYING HIGH 4.5% 22.14 8
6 6 SUPER WIN DRAGON 3.8% 26.43 5
7 7 EIGHT TRIGRAMS 3.5% 28.29 3
8 9 CIRCUIT SEVEN 1.6% 62.09 6
9 10 GOOD LUCK CHARM 1.3% 76.46 9
10 3 SHINY ONE 1.0% 104.60 10
WHEN YOU BELIEVEMETRO WARRIORELONCARROLL STREET — wonFLYING HIGHSUPER WIN DRAGONEIGHT TRIGRAMSCIRCUIT SEVENGOOD LUCK CHARMSHINY ONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 20

PLACE

4 17.5

7 56.5

8 12.5

QUINELLA

4,8 63.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 182

4,8 25.5

7,8 88

FORECAST

8,4 102

TIERCE

8,4,7 1,129

TRIO

4,7,8 511

FIRST 4

1,4,7,8 361

QUARTET

8,4,7,1 4,762

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/4 40.5

8/8 138.5

3 PICK 1

A1 15

A2

A3