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Sha Tin · 2021-04-17

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. LUCKY RUBY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with PEGASUS GLORY second and GALLANT LEGACY third. The 4.6 favourite INFINITE POWER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.04
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 LUCKY RUBY B/TT 1.09.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man 8 6.2 1/2
2 3 PEGASUS GLORY B1 K C Leung · Y S Tsui 10 12.0 1/2
3 7 GALLANT LEGACY TT C L Chau · C W Chang 3 5.1 3/4
4 10 INFINITE POWER Z Purton · F C Lor 4 4.6 3/4
5 12 THE BEST HERO V H W Lai · L Ho 12 41.0 1-3/4
6 9 LITTLE THUNDER B K Teetan · A T Millard 6 6.1 2-1/2
7 5 THOU SHALL SING B C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 15.0 3
8 4 SEVEN HEAVENS B/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 11 6.9 3-1/2
9 8 DEMONS ROCK B J Moreira · D J Hall 9 16.0 4
10 2 BLOTTING PAPER B C Wong · R Gibson 5 40.0 4-3/4
11 6 PEACH BLOSSOMS B/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 7 70.0 5-1/4
12 1 JUST NOT LISTENING V K H Chan · T P Yung 2 14.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY RUBY2. PEGASUS GLORY+0.5L3. GALLANT LEGACY+0.75L4. INFINITE POWER+0.75L5. THE BEST HERO+1.75L6. LITTLE THUNDER+2.5L7. THOU SHALL SING+3L8. SEVEN HEAVENS+3.5L9. DEMONS ROCK+4L10. BLOTTING PAPER+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick LITTLE THUNDER (23.4%) finished 6th — the winner LUCKY RUBY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 LITTLE THUNDER 23.4% 4.27 6
2 5 THOU SHALL SING 14.2% 7.03 7
3 8 DEMONS ROCK 9.8% 10.17 9
4 10 INFINITE POWER 9.5% 10.55 4
5 4 SEVEN HEAVENS 8.6% 11.61 8
6 7 GALLANT LEGACY 6.9% 14.46 3
7 11 LUCKY RUBY 5.6% 17.98 1
8 1 JUST NOT LISTENING 5.5% 18.30 12
9 3 PEGASUS GLORY 5.4% 18.67 2
10 2 BLOTTING PAPER 4.0% 25.11 10
11 6 PEACH BLOSSOMS 4.0% 25.25 11
12 12 THE BEST HERO 3.2% 31.62 5
LITTLE THUNDERTHOU SHALL SINGDEMONS ROCKINFINITE POWERSEVEN HEAVENSGALLANT LEGACYLUCKY RUBY — wonJUST NOT LISTENINGPEGASUS GLORYBLOTTING PAPERPEACH BLOSSOMSTHE BEST HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 62.5

PLACE

3 32.5

7 18.5

11 21.5

QUINELLA

3,11 337.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 84.5

3,11 131.5

7,11 56.5

FORECAST

11,3 557

TIERCE

11,3,7 2,796

TRIO

3,7,11 545

FIRST 4

3,7,10,11 707

QUARTET

11,3,7,10 17,847

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,8,10/3,7,11 53,370

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 19.5

6TH DOUBLE

4/3 133.5

4/11 518