Sha Tin · 2021-04-17
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-17 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SHANGHAI DRAGON, ridden by K Teetan and trained by T P Yung, won by 3/4, with DAILY CHARM second and LEADING FORTUNE third. The winner led throughout. The 3.2 favourite JOYFUL HEART finished 11th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SHANGHAI DRAGON Wire to wire B 1.50.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 13 | 7.3 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 13 | DAILY CHARM Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · C S Shum | V Borges | C S Shum | 3 | 9.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 11 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | MORE THAN A HORSE Closed strongly B/SR2 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 6 | 29.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 4 | 21.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | TOYCOON T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 1 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | STUNNING IMPACT CP C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan | C Y Ho | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 19.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | LUCKY MISSILE CP A Hamelin · D J Hall | A Hamelin | D J Hall | 9 | 42.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | AWE Closed strongly CP/XB C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 8 | 6.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | SMART COUSIN Closed strongly H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 10 | 75.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | JOYFUL HEART CP/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 2 | 3.2 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | EXALTATION V/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 7 | 34.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 13 | 4 | EZRA B J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 12 | 9.9 | 13-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | JOYFUL HEART | 28.0% | 3.57 | 11 |
| 2 | 4 | EZRA | 14.2% | 7.05 | 13 |
| 3 | 7 | SHANGHAI DRAGON | 10.0% | 9.96 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | CHEERFUL STAR | 9.7% | 10.36 | 5 |
| 5 | 1 | AWE | 6.4% | 15.59 | 9 |
| 6 | 3 | TOYCOON | 5.2% | 19.38 | 6 |
| 7 | 13 | DAILY CHARM | 5.1% | 19.44 | 2 |
| 8 | 8 | STUNNING IMPACT | 4.9% | 20.29 | 7 |
| 9 | 6 | MORE THAN A HORSE | 4.9% | 20.43 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | LEADING FORTUNE | 4.4% | 22.56 | 3 |
| 11 | 10 | EXALTATION | 2.9% | 34.58 | 12 |
| 12 | 9 | LUCKY MISSILE | 2.7% | 37.19 | 8 |
| 13 | 11 | SMART COUSIN | 1.5% | 65.21 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 73.5
PLACE
5 36
7 26.5
13 28.5
QUINELLA
7,13 265
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 148.5
5,13 211.5
7,13 86
FORECAST
7,13 393
TIERCE
7,13,5 6,910
TRIO
5,7,13 1,712
FIRST 4
5,6,7,13 8,844
QUARTET
7,13,5,6 156,879
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
6,8,9/5,7,13 512,137
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 22.5
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
8/7 2,101.5
8/13 217.5