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Sha Tin · 2021-04-17

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 11 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-17 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. RED DESERT, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by J Size, won by SH, with SUNNY BOY second and KURPANY third. The 4.2 favourite KURPANY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 RED DESERT 1.08.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · J Size 7 9.2 SH
2 11 SUNNY BOY B/TT C Wong · W Y So 3 47.0 SH
3 4 KURPANY TT J Moreira · C Fownes 11 4.2 HD
4 7 VICTORIAM T Piccone · K W Lui 1 46.0 1-1/2
5 1 WILL POWER XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 8 6.5 2-1/2
6 8 CZARSON CP/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 10 9.5 2-3/4
7 6 HIGHLAND FORTUNE B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 7.9 3-1/4
8 5 AMAZING CHOCOLATE B K Teetan · A T Millard 6 4.5 3-1/4
9 12 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 9 40.0 6
10 3 GOLDEN DASH B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 4 6.8 6-1/2
11 10 LOCKHEED B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 2 21.0 6-3/4
9 IGNITING V Borges · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED DESERT2. SUNNY BOY+0.1L3. KURPANY+0.2L4. VICTORIAM+1.5L5. WILL POWER+2.5L6. CZARSON+2.75L7. HIGHLAND FORTUNE+3.25L8. AMAZING CHOCOLATE+3.25L9. TEAM SPIRIT+6L10. GOLDEN DASH+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KURPANY (28.7%) finished 3rd — the winner RED DESERT was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 KURPANY 28.7% 3.48 3
2 3 GOLDEN DASH 22.3% 4.49 10
3 1 WILL POWER 12.1% 8.30 5
4 10 LOCKHEED 9.3% 10.77 11
5 5 AMAZING CHOCOLATE 8.1% 12.33 8
6 2 RED DESERT 5.4% 18.35 1
7 6 HIGHLAND FORTUNE 4.4% 22.70 7
8 7 VICTORIAM 3.4% 29.01 4
9 11 SUNNY BOY 2.8% 35.22 2
10 8 CZARSON 2.1% 48.11 6
11 12 TEAM SPIRIT 1.3% 76.62 9
KURPANYGOLDEN DASHWILL POWERLOCKHEEDAMAZING CHOCOLATERED DESERT — wonHIGHLAND FORTUNEVICTORIAMSUNNY BOYCZARSONTEAM SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 92

PLACE

2 24

4 17

11 125

QUINELLA

2,11 1,900.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 71

2,11 491

4,11 318

FORECAST

2,11 2,972

TIERCE

2,11,4 20,134

TRIO

2,4,11 2,254

FIRST 4

2,4,7,11 13,759

QUARTET

2,11,4,7 412,569

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 24.5

8TH DOUBLE

9/2 1,305

9/11 988.5