Sha Tin · 2021-04-17
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-17 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. RED DESERT, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by J Size, won by SH, with SUNNY BOY second and KURPANY third. The 4.2 favourite KURPANY finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | RED DESERT 1.08.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 7 | 9.2 | SH |
| 2 | 11 | SUNNY BOY B/TT C Wong · W Y So | C Wong | W Y So | 3 | 47.0 | SH |
| 3 | 4 | KURPANY TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 11 | 4.2 | HD |
| 4 | 7 | VICTORIAM T Piccone · K W Lui | T Piccone | K W Lui | 1 | 46.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | WILL POWER XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 6.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | CZARSON CP/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 10 | 9.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 7.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 6 | 4.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | TEAM SPIRIT B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 9 | 40.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 3 | GOLDEN DASH B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 4 | 6.8 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | LOCKHEED B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 2 | 21.0 | 6-3/4 |
| — | 9 | IGNITING V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | KURPANY | 28.7% | 3.48 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | GOLDEN DASH | 22.3% | 4.49 | 10 |
| 3 | 1 | WILL POWER | 12.1% | 8.30 | 5 |
| 4 | 10 | LOCKHEED | 9.3% | 10.77 | 11 |
| 5 | 5 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE | 8.1% | 12.33 | 8 |
| 6 | 2 | RED DESERT | 5.4% | 18.35 | 1 |
| 7 | 6 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE | 4.4% | 22.70 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | VICTORIAM | 3.4% | 29.01 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | SUNNY BOY | 2.8% | 35.22 | 2 |
| 10 | 8 | CZARSON | 2.1% | 48.11 | 6 |
| 11 | 12 | TEAM SPIRIT | 1.3% | 76.62 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 92
PLACE
2 24
4 17
11 125
QUINELLA
2,11 1,900.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 71
2,11 491
4,11 318
FORECAST
2,11 2,972
TIERCE
2,11,4 20,134
TRIO
2,4,11 2,254
FIRST 4
2,4,7,11 13,759
QUARTET
2,11,4,7 412,569
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 24.5
8TH DOUBLE
9/2 1,305
9/11 988.5