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Sha Tin · 2021-05-23

Race 1

Griffin GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 9 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TORONADO PHANTOM TT1 1.09.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · J Size 8 17.0 1
2 0 TURBO POWER Z Purton · K W Lui 7 2.4 1
3 0 GREAT KING SR/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 1 28.0 3-1/2
4 0 HK DRAGON B H Bentley · D J Whyte 5 11.0 5
5 0 SUPER KINGDOM B1 K Teetan · A T Millard 9 13.0 5-1/2
6 0 SMART IDEA TT1 J Moreira · F C Lor 2 2.6 5-3/4
7 0 COMPULSORY B1/TT1 A Hamelin · A T Millard 4 7.5 8-3/4
8 0 HANG'S CHOICE H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 3 88.0 13-3/4
9 0 CHIU CHOW WARRIOR B1 A Badel · K W Lui 6 33.0 34

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-23 was Griffin over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TORONADO PHANTOM, ridden by C Schofield and trained by J Size, won by 1, with TURBO POWER second and GREAT KING third. The 2.4 favourite TURBO POWER finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TORONADO PHANTOM—2. TURBO POWER+1L3. GREAT KING+3.5L4. HK DRAGON+5L5. SUPER KINGDOM+5.5L6. SMART IDEA+5.75L7. COMPULSORY+8.75L8. HANG'S CHOICE+13.75L9. CHIU CHOW WARRIOR+34L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SMART IDEA (47.7%) finished 6th — the winner TORONADO PHANTOM was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SMART IDEA 47.7% 2.09 6
2 0 TURBO POWER 21.1% 4.74 2
3 0 HK DRAGON 13.9% 7.20 4
4 0 COMPULSORY 4.6% 21.88 7
5 0 TORONADO PHANTOM 4.3% 23.09 1
6 0 SUPER KINGDOM 4.1% 24.37 5
7 0 CHIU CHOW WARRIOR 2.0% 48.85 9
8 0 GREAT KING 1.8% 54.57 3
9 0 HANG'S CHOICE 0.4% 263.48 8
SMART IDEATURBO POWERHK DRAGONCOMPULSORYTORONADO PHANTOM — wonSUPER KINGDOMCHIU CHOW WARRIORGREAT KINGHANG'S CHOICE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 173.5

PLACE

1 12.5

3 47

6 43

QUINELLA

1,6 238.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 92

1,6 74

3,6 278

FORECAST

6,1 883

TIERCE

6,1,3 8,278

TRIO

1,3,6 1,000

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 1,737

QUARTET

6,1,3,5 66,058

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 74.5