Sha Tin · 2021-05-23

Race 1

Griffin GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 9 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-23 was Griffin over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TORONADO PHANTOM, ridden by C Schofield and trained by J Size, won by 1, with TURBO POWER second and GREAT KING third. The 2.4 favourite TURBO POWER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.24

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	TORONADO PHANTOM TT1 1.09.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · J Size	C Schofield	J Size	8	126 lb	17.0	1
2	1	TURBO POWER Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	7	133 lb	2.4	1
3	3	GREAT KING SR/TT K C Leung · C H Yip	K C Leung	C H Yip	1	126 lb	28.0	3-1/2
4	5	HK DRAGON B H Bentley · D J Whyte	H Bentley	D J Whyte	5	126 lb	11.0	5
5	9	SUPER KINGDOM B1 K Teetan · A T Millard	K Teetan	A T Millard	9	121 lb	13.0	5-1/2
6	8	SMART IDEA TT1 J Moreira · F C Lor	J Moreira	F C Lor	2	121 lb	2.6	5-3/4
7	7	COMPULSORY B1/TT1 A Hamelin · A T Millard	A Hamelin	A T Millard	4	121 lb	7.5	8-3/4
8	4	HANG'S CHOICE H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So	M L Yeung	W Y So	3	126 lb	88.0	13-3/4
9	2	CHIU CHOW WARRIOR B1 A Badel · K W Lui	A Badel	K W Lui	6	126 lb	33.0	34

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick SMART IDEA (47.7%) finished 6th — the winner TORONADO PHANTOM was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	SMART IDEA	47.7%	2.09	6	2.6
2	1	TURBO POWER	21.1%	4.74	2	2.4
3	5	HK DRAGON	13.9%	7.20	4	11.0
4	7	COMPULSORY	4.6%	21.88	7	7.5
5	6	TORONADO PHANTOM	4.3%	23.09	1	17.0
6	9	SUPER KINGDOM	4.1%	24.37	5	13.0
7	2	CHIU CHOW WARRIOR	2.0%	48.85	9	33.0
8	3	GREAT KING	1.8%	54.57	3	28.0
9	4	HANG'S CHOICE	0.4%	263.48	8	88.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 173.5

PLACE

1 12.5

3 47

6 43

QUINELLA

1,6 238.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 92

1,6 74

3,6 278

FORECAST

6,1 883

TIERCE

6,1,3 8,278

TRIO

1,3,6 1,000

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 1,737

QUARTET

6,1,3,5 66,058

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 74.5

A2 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99