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Sha Tin · 2021-05-23

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-23 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. DROPS OF GOD, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 2-1/4, with VICTORY SCHOLARS second and COURAGEOUS KNIGHT third. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.89
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 DROPS OF GOD 1.08.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 7 1.8 2-1/4
2 1 VICTORY SCHOLARS CP1 Z Purton · D J Hall 3 2.6 2-1/4
3 3 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT B1/TT1 M F Poon · C S Shum 4 137.0 4
4 7 NAMJONG CORTEZ H-/B1/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 82.0 4-3/4
5 8 REGENT GLORY C Schofield · D A Hayes 6 26.0 5-3/4
6 2 BELLA BABY XB/TT A Badel · W Y So 14 14.0 6-1/4
7 12 SUNDAY BETTING TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 18.0 6-1/2
8 9 SPARKY STAR B- K Teetan · A T Millard 10 27.0 6-3/4
9 5 ILLUSTRIOUS R Maia · T P Yung 1 146.0 7
10 13 JUNGLE BLAZE TT T Piccone · K W Lui 12 244.0 7-3/4
11 6 MEGA BONUS B/XB K C Leung · P F Yiu 13 31.0 9-1/4
12 11 MUDITA B- M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 11 59.0 11-1/2
13 14 SKY CHAMPION H N Wong · Y S Tsui 8 117.0 12
14 10 ENJOY MY LIFE B1/XB1/TT K H Chan · C H Yip 9 300.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DROPS OF GOD2. VICTORY SCHOLARS+2.25L3. COURAGEOUS KNIGHT+4L4. NAMJONG CORTEZ+4.75L5. REGENT GLORY+5.75L6. BELLA BABY+6.25L7. SUNDAY BETTING+6.5L8. SPARKY STAR+6.75L9. ILLUSTRIOUS+7L10. JUNGLE BLAZE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick VICTORY SCHOLARS (27.7%) finished 2nd — the winner DROPS OF GOD was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 VICTORY SCHOLARS 27.7% 3.61 2
2 4 DROPS OF GOD 27.5% 3.64 1
3 2 BELLA BABY 9.5% 10.50 6
4 12 SUNDAY BETTING 6.9% 14.57 7
5 8 REGENT GLORY 5.3% 19.02 5
6 3 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT 5.3% 19.04 3
7 6 MEGA BONUS 4.3% 23.27 11
8 11 MUDITA 4.3% 23.37 12
9 9 SPARKY STAR 4.3% 23.51 8
10 5 ILLUSTRIOUS 2.5% 39.66 9
11 14 SKY CHAMPION 0.9% 106.95 13
12 10 ENJOY MY LIFE 0.7% 146.74 14
13 13 JUNGLE BLAZE 0.6% 154.40 10
14 7 NAMJONG CORTEZ 0.3% 297.33 4
VICTORY SCHOLARSDROPS OF GOD — wonBELLA BABYSUNDAY BETTINGREGENT GLORYCOURAGEOUS KNIGHTMEGA BONUSMUDITASPARKY STARILLUSTRIOUSSKY CHAMPIONENJOY MY LIFEJUNGLE BLAZENAMJONG CORTEZ

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 18.5

PLACE

1 10.5

3 194.5

4 12

QUINELLA

1,4 25

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 272

1,4 14.5

3,4 260

FORECAST

4,1 46

TIERCE

4,1,3 1,391

TRIO

1,3,4 358

FIRST 4

1,3,4,7 5,162

QUARTET

4,1,3,7 33,929

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/1 31

2/4 148.5

3 PICK 1

A1 11

A2

A3