Sha Tin · 2021-05-23

Race 4

Group 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 9 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-23 was Group 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. COURIER WONDER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with STRONGER second and SKY FIELD third. Victory came as the 1.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.16

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	COURIER WONDER 1.08.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	6	118 lb	1.1	3/4
2	4	STRONGER CP-/XB/SR1/TT- C Y Ho · D J Whyte	C Y Ho	D J Whyte	8	130 lb	25.0	3/4
3	3	SKY FIELD TT B Shinn · C Fownes	B Shinn	C Fownes	5	130 lb	19.0	1-1/4
4	7	DUKE WAI B/H K Teetan · P O'Sullivan	K Teetan	P O'Sullivan	3	122 lb	14.0	1-1/4
5	1	COMPUTER PATCH TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	4	132 lb	15.0	3
6	5	VOYAGE WARRIOR R Maia · P F Yiu	R Maia	P F Yiu	1	130 lb	18.0	3
7	2	RATTAN B C Schofield · R Gibson	C Schofield	R Gibson	2	130 lb	30.0	4-1/2
8	8	FAT TURTLE B A Badel · F C Lor	A Badel	F C Lor	9	121 lb	68.0	4-1/2
9	6	WISHFUL THINKER K C Leung · C H Yip	K C Leung	C H Yip	7	130 lb	35.0	5-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick COURIER WONDER (60.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	COURIER WONDER	60.7%	1.65	1	1.1
2	7	DUKE WAI	8.8%	11.31	4	14.0
3	3	SKY FIELD	8.6%	11.66	3	19.0
4	1	COMPUTER PATCH	5.7%	17.52	5	15.0
5	4	STRONGER	4.2%	23.59	2	25.0
6	2	RATTAN	3.5%	28.46	7	30.0
7	6	WISHFUL THINKER	3.1%	32.35	9	35.0
8	8	FAT TURTLE	3.0%	32.99	8	68.0
9	5	VOYAGE WARRIOR	2.3%	43.17	6	18.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 11.5

PLACE

3 27

4 33

9 10.1

QUINELLA

4,9 92.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 152.5

3,9 29.5

4,9 38

FORECAST

9,4 107

TIERCE

9,4,3 476

TRIO

3,4,9 179

FIRST 4

3,4,7,9 202

QUARTET

9,4,3,7 2,020

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 11.5

3RD DOUBLE

4/4 69.5

4/9 24.5

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