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Sha Tin · 2021-05-23

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-23 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. DESTIN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1-1/2, with JIANGXI STAMINA second and SURE WIN WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite JIANGXI STAMINA finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 DESTIN Closed strongly B 1.21.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 2 5.1 1-1/2
2 1 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 13 3.1 1-1/2
3 6 SURE WIN WIN Closed strongly B-/V1 K C Leung · T P Yung 3 9.7 2
4 14 THE FULL BLOOM Closed strongly V H T Mo · D J Hall 10 18.0 3
5 12 BLAZING PARTNERS B M Chadwick · D E Ferraris 7 7.1 3-1/4
6 4 RUN DES RUN Closed strongly TT T Piccone · K W Lui 1 58.0 5-1/2
7 7 FUN TIMES Closed strongly B B Shinn · A T Millard 9 16.0 6
8 10 BRAVE POWER Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 8 30.0 6-1/2
9 13 HAPPY WINNER H/P2 M L Yeung · L Ho 4 58.0 8
10 9 ALLOY KING B A Hamelin · K H Ting 14 34.0 8-1/2
11 11 RED ZOFFANY B/TT R Maia · K L Man 11 108.0 9-1/2
12 5 SHANGHAI GRACE B1/H2 M F Poon · Y S Tsui 6 12.0 9-1/2
13 8 VICTORIOUS LEADER J Moreira · C H Yip 5 7.1 13
14 3 KELMIMI WINS Led early B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 12 47.0 14-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DESTIN2. JIANGXI STAMINA+1.5L3. SURE WIN WIN+2L4. THE FULL BLOOM+3L5. BLAZING PARTNERS+3.25L6. RUN DES RUN+5.5L7. FUN TIMES+6L8. BRAVE POWER+6.5L9. HAPPY WINNER+8L10. ALLOY KING+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick DESTIN (23.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 DESTIN 23.4% 4.28 1
2 8 VICTORIOUS LEADER 22.5% 4.45 13
3 1 JIANGXI STAMINA 11.5% 8.70 2
4 6 SURE WIN WIN 9.5% 10.47 3
5 12 BLAZING PARTNERS 6.9% 14.51 5
6 5 SHANGHAI GRACE 6.4% 15.75 12
7 9 ALLOY KING 4.4% 22.59 10
8 7 FUN TIMES 3.7% 27.23 7
9 14 THE FULL BLOOM 3.0% 33.59 4
10 10 BRAVE POWER 2.8% 35.30 8
11 13 HAPPY WINNER 2.0% 48.98 9
12 3 KELMIMI WINS 1.7% 58.05 14
13 4 RUN DES RUN 1.2% 81.98 6
14 11 RED ZOFFANY 1.0% 101.87 11
DESTIN — wonVICTORIOUS LEADERJIANGXI STAMINASURE WIN WINBLAZING PARTNERSSHANGHAI GRACEALLOY KINGFUN TIMESTHE FULL BLOOMBRAVE POWERHAPPY WINNERKELMIMI WINSRUN DES RUNRED ZOFFANY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 51.5

PLACE

1 15

2 16.5

6 32.5

QUINELLA

1,2 114

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 44.5

1,6 67

2,6 83.5

FORECAST

2,1 255

TIERCE

2,1,6 1,441

TRIO

1,2,6 242

FIRST 4

1,2,6,14 1,078

QUARTET

2,1,6,14 22,493

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

6/1 178

6/2 1,408

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 21

A1