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Sha Tin · 2021-05-23

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 11 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-23 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HALL OF CHAMP, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by 2, with HORSESAIN BOLT second and XIANG YIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite HORSESAIN BOLT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.20.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 HALL OF CHAMP Closed strongly TT 1.20.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes 3 3.2 2
2 7 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/XB Z Purton · D J Whyte 4 3.0 2
3 10 XIANG YIN Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · F C Lor 8 17.0 2-3/4
4 8 KAI XIN DRAGON Led early TT M Chadwick · D A Hayes 6 19.0 5-1/2
5 1 ROYAL BOMB K Teetan · C Fownes 1 10.0 6
6 6 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly B- H N Wong · Y S Tsui 10 34.0 6-1/4
7 4 ELON P/E1 C Schofield · J Size 9 26.0 6-3/4
8 3 YO BEAUTY CP/H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 7 11.0 6-3/4
9 9 COMPASSION SPIRIT B K C Leung · K L Man 2 7.7 8
10 2 WINNING FOR ALL B/H/XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 14.0 9-1/4
11 11 FLASH FAMOUS TT C Wong · C H Yip 5 54.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HALL OF CHAMP2. HORSESAIN BOLT+2L3. XIANG YIN+2.75L4. KAI XIN DRAGON+5.5L5. ROYAL BOMB+6L6. GREAT TREASURE+6.25L7. ELON+6.75L8. YO BEAUTY+6.75L9. COMPASSION SPIRIT+8L10. WINNING FOR ALL+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick YO BEAUTY (25.2%) finished 8th — the winner HALL OF CHAMP was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 YO BEAUTY 25.2% 3.97 8
2 7 HORSESAIN BOLT 20.5% 4.88 2
3 1 ROYAL BOMB 15.4% 6.50 5
4 9 COMPASSION SPIRIT 11.0% 9.06 9
5 5 HALL OF CHAMP 9.8% 10.19 1
6 2 WINNING FOR ALL 7.2% 13.83 10
7 4 ELON 3.8% 26.15 7
8 10 XIANG YIN 2.5% 39.61 3
9 8 KAI XIN DRAGON 2.4% 41.26 4
10 11 FLASH FAMOUS 1.4% 73.30 11
11 6 GREAT TREASURE 0.8% 131.87 6
YO BEAUTYHORSESAIN BOLTROYAL BOMBCOMPASSION SPIRITHALL OF CHAMP — wonWINNING FOR ALLELONXIANG YINKAI XIN DRAGONFLASH FAMOUSGREAT TREASURE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 32.5

PLACE

5 14

7 14.5

10 42

QUINELLA

5,7 47.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 22

5,10 92.5

7,10 85.5

FORECAST

5,7 121

TIERCE

5,7,10 1,006

TRIO

5,7,10 195

FIRST 4

5,7,8,10 774

QUARTET

5,7,10,8 10,532

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 15.5

8TH DOUBLE

6/5 900.5

6/7 145.5