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Sha Tin · 2021-05-23

Race 10

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-23 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GRACYLOVE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by D J Hall, won by HD, with MASTER HERO second and ZONE D third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite DRAGON FORTUNE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.21.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 GRACYLOVE Closed strongly 1.21.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · D J Hall 7 5.2 HD
2 5 MASTER HERO Closed strongly XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 13.0 HD
3 3 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT J Moreira · J Size 12 9.9 2-1/2
4 13 BRILLIANT CHINA Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · T P Yung 3 29.0 2-3/4
5 7 BIG TWO H/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 1 10.0 4-3/4
6 2 DRAGON FORTUNE TT Z Purton · F C Lor 2 2.3 4-3/4
7 12 ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly B H W Lai · K L Man 6 47.0 5-1/2
8 11 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 26.0 5-1/2
9 4 LOVE ME MORE K C Leung · P F Yiu 13 15.0 6
10 1 SUPER RED DRAGON Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · W Y So 5 9.1 8
11 14 MAGIC BONUS M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 194.0 12-1/4
12 6 SHADOW RUNNER Led early B K H Chan · P O'Sullivan 9 62.0 12-1/2
13 10 TELECOM PUMA Closed strongly TT T Piccone · C Fownes 8 62.0 12-3/4
14 8 FOREVER M Chadwick · C H Yip 14 108.0 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GRACYLOVE2. MASTER HERO+0.2L3. ZONE D+2.5L4. BRILLIANT CHINA+2.75L5. BIG TWO+4.75L6. DRAGON FORTUNE+4.75L7. ULTIMATE GLORY+5.5L8. GO GO SIXTEEN+5.5L9. LOVE ME MORE+6L10. SUPER RED DRAGON+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick DRAGON FORTUNE (33.1%) finished 6th — the winner GRACYLOVE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 DRAGON FORTUNE 33.1% 3.02 6
2 3 ZONE D 13.7% 7.28 3
3 9 GRACYLOVE 11.3% 8.81 1
4 1 SUPER RED DRAGON 9.9% 10.10 10
5 5 MASTER HERO 8.0% 12.44 2
6 7 BIG TWO 6.1% 16.50 5
7 4 LOVE ME MORE 4.5% 22.25 9
8 6 SHADOW RUNNER 3.5% 28.39 12
9 11 GO GO SIXTEEN 3.2% 31.63 8
10 13 BRILLIANT CHINA 2.7% 37.38 4
11 10 TELECOM PUMA 1.6% 63.06 13
12 12 ULTIMATE GLORY 1.4% 70.23 7
13 8 FOREVER 0.5% 212.80 14
14 14 MAGIC BONUS 0.5% 221.48 11
DRAGON FORTUNEZONE DGRACYLOVE — wonSUPER RED DRAGONMASTER HEROBIG TWOLOVE ME MORESHADOW RUNNERGO GO SIXTEENBRILLIANT CHINATELECOM PUMAULTIMATE GLORYFOREVERMAGIC BONUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 52

PLACE

3 22

5 33.5

9 17

QUINELLA

5,9 294.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 126

3,9 79

5,9 90.5

FORECAST

9,5 332

TIERCE

9,5,3 3,363

TRIO

3,5,9 1,017

FIRST 4

3,5,9,13 2,807

QUARTET

9,5,3,13 40,907

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 25

A2

9TH DOUBLE

5/5 105

5/9 248