Sha Tin · 2021-05-23

Race 8

Group 1 GOOD TO FIRM 2400m Course A 8 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-23 was Group 1 over 2400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PANFIELD, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by 1/2, with COLUMBUS COUNTY second and EXULTANT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite EXULTANT finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 2.25.25

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	PANFIELD Closed strongly TT 2.25.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard	K Teetan	A T Millard	4	126 lb	18.0	1/2
2	3	COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	5	126 lb	3.2	1/2
3	1	EXULTANT XB/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	6	126 lb	2.4	1-3/4
4	5	BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C S Shum	M F Poon	C S Shum	2	126 lb	13.0	3-3/4
5	2	GLORIOUS DRAGON TT C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	3	126 lb	5.9	5
6	4	RUSSIAN EMPEROR Closed strongly B-/XB/SR1 A Badel · D J Whyte	A Badel	D J Whyte	7	126 lb	8.0	6-1/4
7	8	PACKING WALTHAM Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	8	126 lb	22.0	7-1/4
8	7	TIME WARP Led early TT H Bentley · A S Cruz	H Bentley	A S Cruz	1	126 lb	59.0	21-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick EXULTANT (44.7%) finished 3rd — the winner PANFIELD was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	EXULTANT	44.7%	2.24	3	2.4
2	4	RUSSIAN EMPEROR	12.7%	7.89	6	8.0
3	6	PANFIELD	10.1%	9.94	1	18.0
4	3	COLUMBUS COUNTY	9.4%	10.68	2	3.2
5	5	BUTTERFIELD	8.6%	11.62	4	13.0
6	2	GLORIOUS DRAGON	7.9%	12.73	5	5.9
7	8	PACKING WALTHAM	4.1%	24.38	7	22.0
8	7	TIME WARP	2.6%	38.55	8	59.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 181.5

PLACE

1 11.5

3 14

6 35.5

QUINELLA

3,6 265.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 19

1,6 51

3,6 62.5

FORECAST

6,3 499

TIERCE

6,3,1 1,969

TRIO

1,3,6 174

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 200

QUARTET

6,3,1,5 7,828

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,10,11/1,3,6 112,077

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 86.5

A1 —

7TH DOUBLE

4/3 38

4/6 1,059.5

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