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Sha Tin · 2021-05-23

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 THE HULK Closed strongly 1.21.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C Fownes 10 5.1 1-3/4
2 0 LEAP OF FAITH Closed strongly A Badel · J Size 5 12.0 1-3/4
3 0 FLYING VICTORY Closed strongly H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 9 43.0 2-1/4
4 0 GOLDEN LINK Led early T Piccone · P F Yiu 8 12.0 2-1/2
5 0 BEAUTY SPIRIT Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 3 14.0 3-1/2
6 0 TRUST ME Closed strongly H M Chadwick · C H Yip 11 33.0 4
7 0 KING OPIE V-/B2 J Moreira · F C Lor 4 12.0 5-1/4
8 0 CRAIG'S STAR B M F Poon · C S Shum 1 3.2 6-3/4
9 0 WIN WIN Closed strongly B R Maia · T P Yung 7 19.0 6-3/4
10 0 AI ONE XB-/CP1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 2 77.0 6-3/4
11 0 UNCLE STEVE CP/SR/XB Z Purton · D J Whyte 6 3.5 8-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-23 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. THE HULK, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-3/4, with LEAP OF FAITH second and FLYING VICTORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite CRAIG'S STAR finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE HULK—2. LEAP OF FAITH+1.75L3. FLYING VICTORY+2.25L4. GOLDEN LINK+2.5L5. BEAUTY SPIRIT+3.5L6. TRUST ME+4L7. KING OPIE+5.25L8. CRAIG'S STAR+6.75L9. WIN WIN+6.75L10. AI ONE+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KING OPIE (22.9%) finished 7th — the winner THE HULK was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 KING OPIE 22.9% 4.37 7
2 0 UNCLE STEVE 22.5% 4.45 11
3 0 CRAIG'S STAR 14.4% 6.92 8
4 0 THE HULK 12.4% 8.08 1
5 0 GOLDEN LINK 7.3% 13.68 4
6 0 LEAP OF FAITH 5.2% 19.12 2
7 0 TRUST ME 4.1% 24.69 6
8 0 BEAUTY SPIRIT 3.9% 25.79 5
9 0 FLYING VICTORY 3.3% 29.96 3
10 0 WIN WIN 2.7% 36.61 9
11 0 AI ONE 1.3% 76.99 10
KING OPIEUNCLE STEVECRAIG'S STARTHE HULK — wonGOLDEN LINKLEAP OF FAITHTRUST MEBEAUTY SPIRITFLYING VICTORYWIN WINAI ONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 51.5

PLACE

4 16.5

10 100.5

11 47

QUINELLA

4,11 285.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 370

4,11 120.5

10,11 595.5

FORECAST

4,11 874

TIERCE

4,11,10 18,413

TRIO

4,10,11 5,670

FIRST 4

4,7,10,11 8,434

QUARTET

4,11,10,7 144,669

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 28

A3 —

6TH DOUBLE

10/4 539.5

10/11 304

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,11,13/3,5,10/Any Combination 414,534