Sha Tin · 2021-09-19

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 9 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-19 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. GAMEPLAYER TIMES, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2-3/4, with TOYCOON second and LONDON LUCKYSTAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite FAIRY FLOSS finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.38.32

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	GAMEPLAYER TIMES Closed strongly SR/XB 1.38.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte	C L Chau	D J Whyte	1	128 lb	3.3	2-3/4
2	5	TOYCOON SR-/CP2 H Bentley · P F Yiu	H Bentley	P F Yiu	5	125 lb	25.0	2-3/4
3	8	LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly PC M F Poon · L Ho	M F Poon	L Ho	3	113 lb	15.0	2-3/4
4	9	OH BRAVO Closed strongly TT A Badel · W Y So	A Badel	W Y So	7	115 lb	18.0	3
5	3	LADY FIRST CP/H/XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	2	128 lb	9.3	3-3/4
6	2	SUPER FAST XB C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	9	133 lb	9.1	4
7	6	FAIRY FLOSS Closed strongly CP/H J Moreira · P O'Sullivan	J Moreira	P O'Sullivan	4	124 lb	2.2	5-1/2
8	7	BLAZING BEAT Led early CP/XB H T Mo · C W Chang	H T Mo	C W Chang	8	118 lb	67.0	6
9	4	EL JEFE XB/P1/TT K C Leung · C H Yip	K C Leung	C H Yip	6	126 lb	15.0	6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick FAIRY FLOSS (23.5%) finished 7th — the winner GAMEPLAYER TIMES was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	FAIRY FLOSS	23.5%	4.26	7	2.2
2	3	LADY FIRST	20.7%	4.83	5	9.3
3	1	GAMEPLAYER TIMES	13.9%	7.21	1	3.3
4	2	SUPER FAST	12.9%	7.72	6	9.1
5	5	TOYCOON	7.4%	13.48	2	25.0
6	7	BLAZING BEAT	6.4%	15.55	8	67.0
7	8	LONDON LUCKYSTAR	5.9%	17.09	3	15.0
8	9	OH BRAVO	4.7%	21.07	4	18.0
9	4	EL JEFE	4.6%	21.94	9	15.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 33

PLACE

1 13.5

5 51.5

8 34.5

QUINELLA

1,5 392.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 111

1,8 55.5

5,8 337

FORECAST

1,5 717

TIERCE

1,5,8 4,677

TRIO

1,5,8 1,214

FIRST 4

1,5,8,9 2,961

QUARTET

1,5,8,9 45,633

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 13

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1650m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99