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Sha Tin · 2021-09-19

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-19 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SOLAR POWER, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C H Yip, won by 2-3/4, with SUNNY BABY second and KUNG FU TEA third. The winner led throughout. The 2.9 favourite BEAUTY SPIRIT finished 13th.

Result

Official · 1.21.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SOLAR POWER Wire to wire 1.21.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C H Yip 14 5.2 2-3/4
2 13 SUNNY BABY Closed strongly M L Yeung · D A Hayes 4 12.0 2-3/4
3 12 KUNG FU TEA Closed strongly B K C Leung · D J Hall 7 9.6 3
4 7 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · R Gibson 12 16.0 3-3/4
5 11 COUNTRY BOY H/P/TT A Badel · J Size 13 48.0 4-1/4
6 2 NOBLE STEED Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 40.0 4-1/4
7 6 FLYING VICTORY H/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 5 6.8 4-3/4
8 9 THE JOLLY Closed strongly XB/CP1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 49.0 4-3/4
9 3 EMERALD SPUR Closed strongly B/TT- M F Poon · P F Yiu 10 13.0 5-1/4
10 4 YOUNG THUNDER CP/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 1 130.0 5-1/2
11 8 SWIFT SPIRIT R Maia · C W Chang 2 9.0 6-1/4
12 14 TELECOM ELITE H H T Mo · Y S Tsui 3 40.0 6-3/4
13 5 BEAUTY SPIRIT B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 6 2.9 8
1 ENCOURAGED L Ferraris · K L Man

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SOLAR POWER2. SUNNY BABY+2.75L3. KUNG FU TEA+3L4. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+3.75L5. COUNTRY BOY+4.25L6. NOBLE STEED+4.25L7. FLYING VICTORY+4.75L8. THE JOLLY+4.75L9. EMERALD SPUR+5.25L10. YOUNG THUNDER+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BEAUTY SPIRIT (22.2%) finished 13th — the winner SOLAR POWER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 BEAUTY SPIRIT 22.2% 4.50 13
2 6 FLYING VICTORY 17.3% 5.78 7
3 8 SWIFT SPIRIT 10.0% 9.98 11
4 10 SOLAR POWER 8.8% 11.31 1
5 11 COUNTRY BOY 7.6% 13.10 5
6 12 KUNG FU TEA 7.5% 13.33 3
7 9 THE JOLLY 5.7% 17.66 8
8 7 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 4.9% 20.52 4
9 3 EMERALD SPUR 3.8% 26.30 9
10 14 TELECOM ELITE 3.5% 28.29 12
11 13 SUNNY BABY 3.3% 30.33 2
12 2 NOBLE STEED 3.3% 30.45 6
13 4 YOUNG THUNDER 2.0% 48.91 10
BEAUTY SPIRITFLYING VICTORYSWIFT SPIRITSOLAR POWER — wonCOUNTRY BOYKUNG FU TEATHE JOLLYPRESIDENT'S CHOICEEMERALD SPURTELECOM ELITESUNNY BABYNOBLE STEEDYOUNG THUNDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 52.5

PLACE

10 18

12 30

13 32

QUINELLA

10,13 321.5

QUINELLA PLACE

10,12 65

10,13 101

12,13 160.5

FORECAST

10,13 630

TIERCE

10,13,12 3,786

TRIO

10,12,13 1,076

FIRST 4

7,10,12,13 3,062

QUARTET

10,13,12,7 57,085

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 21.5

A1

5TH DOUBLE

4/10 396

4/13 68

TRIPLE TRIO

4,9,12/1,2,4/10,12,13 6,441,034

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,9,12/1,2,4/Any Combination 7,816