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Sha Tin · 2021-09-19

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY TIME, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C H Yip, won by NOSE, with KING OF THE COURT second and LUCKY MARYKNOLL third. The 3.7 favourite LUCKY MARYKNOLL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 HAPPY TIME TT 1.08.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C H Yip 10 11.0 NOSE
2 4 KING OF THE COURT A Badel · W Y So 5 4.6 NOSE
3 9 LUCKY MARYKNOLL TT R Maia · D A Hayes 1 3.7 3/4
4 2 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 9 9.9 2-1/2
5 1 MY ECSTATIC TT Z Purton · F C Lor 4 5.1 3-1/4
6 11 MOON PEAKS B/H H W Lai · Y S Tsui 2 8.1 5
7 5 HAPPY DAILY CP K C Leung · L Ho 3 43.0 6
8 6 TREASURE OF FIELD C Schofield · K H Ting 11 22.0 6-1/4
9 3 DAILY BEAUTY B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 6 84.0 10
10 7 TOUCH FAITH B J Moreira · J Size 7 8.5 10-1/4
11 8 MEGA BONUS B-/XB H Bentley · P F Yiu 8 42.0 14-3/4
12 10 HONEY BEE CP-/B1/TT V Borges · K L Man 12 175.0 28-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY TIME2. KING OF THE COURT+0.05L3. LUCKY MARYKNOLL+0.75L4. COURAGEOUS KNIGHT+2.5L5. MY ECSTATIC+3.25L6. MOON PEAKS+5L7. HAPPY DAILY+6L8. TREASURE OF FIELD+6.25L9. DAILY BEAUTY+10L10. TOUCH FAITH+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MY ECSTATIC (23.5%) finished 5th — the winner HAPPY TIME was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 MY ECSTATIC 23.5% 4.25 5
2 9 LUCKY MARYKNOLL 21.5% 4.64 3
3 7 TOUCH FAITH 16.4% 6.09 10
4 11 MOON PEAKS 7.3% 13.73 6
5 2 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT 6.9% 14.42 4
6 4 KING OF THE COURT 5.9% 16.94 2
7 12 HAPPY TIME 4.8% 20.73 1
8 5 HAPPY DAILY 4.2% 23.77 7
9 6 TREASURE OF FIELD 3.9% 25.85 8
10 3 DAILY BEAUTY 2.6% 38.77 9
11 8 MEGA BONUS 2.3% 44.20 11
12 10 HONEY BEE 0.6% 154.81 12
MY ECSTATICLUCKY MARYKNOLLTOUCH FAITHMOON PEAKSCOURAGEOUS KNIGHTKING OF THE COURTHAPPY TIME — wonHAPPY DAILYTREASURE OF FIELDDAILY BEAUTYMEGA BONUSHONEY BEE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 118.5

PLACE

4 19

9 16

12 31

QUINELLA

4,12 234.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 47

4,12 94

9,12 85

FORECAST

12,4 673

TIERCE

12,4,9 3,328

TRIO

4,9,12 402

FIRST 4

2,4,9,12 846

QUARTET

12,4,9,2 30,264

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,11,12/4,9,12 26,954

3 PICK 1

A3 34

A2

A1

3RD DOUBLE

11/4 50

11/12 905.5