Sha Tin · 2021-09-19
Race 3
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | APOLAR WARRIOR Closed strongly B- 1.38.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 5 | 5.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly V K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 8 | 9.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | LUCKY VICTOR Led early B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 11 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly B A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 2 | 8.6 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | EL VALIENTE Closed strongly B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 2.1 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | ALL BEST FRIENDS Closed strongly B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 6 | 34.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | LUCKY PUZZLE SR J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 9 | 19.0 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | RUBY STARS TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 3 | 10.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | AMAZING BOY Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 10 | 88.0 | 11 |
| 10 | 0 | MISTER MONTE CP K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 1 | 15.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | ZELUS CP T Piccone · C W Chang | T Piccone | C W Chang | 7 | 94.0 | 13-1/4 |
| — | 0 | SINCERE BOY H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-19 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. APOLAR WARRIOR, ridden by H Bentley and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2-1/4, with CROWN AVENUE second and LUCKY VICTOR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite EL VALIENTE finished 5th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | EL VALIENTE | 23.8% | 4.20 | 5 |
| 2 | 0 | LUCKY PUZZLE | 13.9% | 7.20 | 7 |
| 3 | 0 | MISTER MONTE | 11.2% | 8.90 | 10 |
| 4 | 0 | APOLAR WARRIOR | 10.6% | 9.44 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | CROWN AVENUE | 10.0% | 10.02 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | LUCKY VICTOR | 9.9% | 10.08 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | RUBY STARS | 6.7% | 14.94 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | TURF BRILLIANT | 5.1% | 19.49 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | AMAZING BOY | 4.7% | 21.46 | 9 |
| 10 | 0 | ALL BEST FRIENDS | 3.5% | 28.70 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | ZELUS | 0.6% | 171.53 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 54.5
PLACE
2 23.5
11 19
12 38.5
QUINELLA
2,11 187
QUINELLA PLACE
2,11 61.5
2,12 167
11,12 110
FORECAST
11,2 469
TIERCE
11,2,12 3,112
TRIO
2,11,12 878
FIRST 4
2,4,11,12 1,061
QUARTET
11,2,12,4 18,905
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
1/2 87
1/11 409
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 29
A3 —