Sha Tin · 2021-09-19
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-19 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. C P BRAVE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/2, with HIGHLAND FORTUNE second and CELESTIAL POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | C P BRAVE Closed strongly 1.33.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 1 | 1.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE Led early K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 9 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 12 | CELESTIAL POWER V M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 6 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | ZEBROWSKI Closed strongly M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 2 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B C L Chau · D J Hall | C L Chau | D J Hall | 5 | 20.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 7 | 30.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | BEAUTY FIT E V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 3 | 20.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | THE ROCK A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 8 | 9.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | SUPER FOOTBALL Closed strongly Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 10 | 9.4 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | HELENE WISDOM STAR Closed strongly H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 11 | 19.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 8 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR CP/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 4 | 150.0 | 7 |
| — | 1 | CHARITY FUN H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | C P BRAVE | 41.8% | 2.40 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | SUPER FOOTBALL | 15.3% | 6.52 | 9 |
| 3 | 12 | CELESTIAL POWER | 7.6% | 13.21 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | BEAUTY FIT | 7.0% | 14.25 | 7 |
| 5 | 9 | HELENE WISDOM STAR | 6.5% | 15.29 | 10 |
| 6 | 5 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE | 5.3% | 19.00 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | CHARITY GO | 4.6% | 21.97 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | THE ROCK | 4.4% | 22.97 | 8 |
| 9 | 4 | FLYING QUEST | 4.1% | 24.37 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR | 1.9% | 51.76 | 11 |
| 11 | 10 | ZEBROWSKI | 1.6% | 63.42 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 18.5
PLACE
5 25.5
11 11.5
12 23.5
QUINELLA
5,11 92.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,11 40
5,12 122
11,12 37
FORECAST
11,5 150
TIERCE
11,5,12 767
TRIO
5,11,12 206
FIRST 4
5,10,11,12 502
QUARTET
11,5,12,10 5,834
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 15.5
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3>2,11,13/5,11,12 19,799
9TH DOUBLE
11,13/5 71.5
11,13/11 51.5
SIX UP
2,4/10,13/5,8/4,8/2,11,13/5,11 13,642
4/10/8/4/11,13/11 478,734
5 [A Badel] —
TREBLE
4/11,13/5 882
4/11,13/11 1,419