Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-09-19

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-19 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. CORDYCEPS SIX, ridden by C L Chau and trained by R Gibson, won by 1-1/4, with SMART IDEA second and KOWLOON EAST STAR third. The 2.2 favourite GLENEALY GENERALS finished 10th.

Result

Official · 0.56.29
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CORDYCEPS SIX B 0.56.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · R Gibson 10 8.7 1-1/4
2 9 SMART IDEA H1/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 4 17.0 1-1/4
3 4 KOWLOON EAST STAR H R Maia · K H Ting 6 112.0 1-3/4
4 12 CARRY THE DIAMOND PC M Chadwick · R Gibson 5 30.0 1-3/4
5 2 EIGHT TRIGRAMS B A Badel · D J Hall 3 16.0 1-3/4
6 7 FOXHUNTER WAY H C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 101.0 3-1/2
7 5 MASTER AQUA Z Purton · D A Hayes 7 3.8 3-3/4
8 6 SPARTAN MISSILE L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 8 54.0 4
9 8 CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 9 8.6 5
10 11 GLENEALY GENERALS B J Moreira · C H Yip 13 2.2 5-1/2
11 13 WIN TECH C Wong · P O'Sullivan 2 152.0 5-1/2
12 10 G ONE EXCELLENT SR-/CP1/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 11 15.0 7-3/4
13 3 ISLAND SURPRISE B1 K C Leung · K L Man 1 78.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS SIX2. SMART IDEA+1.25L3. KOWLOON EAST STAR+1.75L4. CARRY THE DIAMOND+1.75L5. EIGHT TRIGRAMS+1.75L6. FOXHUNTER WAY+3.5L7. MASTER AQUA+3.75L8. SPARTAN MISSILE+4L9. CIRCUIT SEVEN+5L10. GLENEALY GENERALS+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MASTER AQUA (24.6%) finished 7th — the winner CORDYCEPS SIX was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MASTER AQUA 24.6% 4.06 7
2 11 GLENEALY GENERALS 14.0% 7.13 10
3 9 SMART IDEA 12.8% 7.81 2
4 1 CORDYCEPS SIX 10.5% 9.50 1
5 12 CARRY THE DIAMOND 7.3% 13.78 4
6 2 EIGHT TRIGRAMS 6.9% 14.51 5
7 8 CIRCUIT SEVEN 6.1% 16.47 9
8 6 SPARTAN MISSILE 4.8% 20.79 8
9 10 G ONE EXCELLENT 4.2% 23.57 12
10 3 ISLAND SURPRISE 4.0% 25.10 13
11 7 FOXHUNTER WAY 2.1% 47.83 6
12 13 WIN TECH 1.9% 51.37 11
13 4 KOWLOON EAST STAR 0.7% 135.61 3
MASTER AQUAGLENEALY GENERALSSMART IDEACORDYCEPS SIX — wonCARRY THE DIAMONDEIGHT TRIGRAMSCIRCUIT SEVENSPARTAN MISSILEG ONE EXCELLENTISLAND SURPRISEFOXHUNTER WAYWIN TECHKOWLOON EAST STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 87

PLACE

1 22.5

4 200.5

9 42.5

QUINELLA

1,9 576

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 815

1,9 153

4,9 1,429.5

FORECAST

1,9 1,044

TIERCE

1,9,4 51,920

TRIO

1,4,9 10,330

FIRST 4

1,4,9,12 31,439

QUARTET

1,9,4,12 621,091

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/1 181

1/9 105

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 34.5