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Happy Valley · 2021-10-31

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-31 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ALL BEST FRIENDS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K L Man, won by 3/4, with RUN THE TABLE second and JIMMU third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite RIGHTEOUS WIN finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.40.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 ALL BEST FRIENDS Closed strongly B 1.40.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K L Man 8 6.1 3/4
2 2 RUN THE TABLE Closed strongly H Z Purton · K W Lui 10 9.0 3/4
3 7 JIMMU Closed strongly SR B Shinn · Y S Tsui 5 9.6 1-1/4
4 8 THIS IS CHARISMA Closed strongly B-/CP1 K C Leung · D J Hall 11 23.0 1-1/4
5 12 SHINEALOT Closed strongly A Badel · P O'Sullivan 12 10.0 1-1/2
6 4 PRESIDENT STAR B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 6 4.8 2-3/4
7 11 RIGHTEOUS WIN B M Chadwick · P F Yiu 1 3.7 3
8 9 GRAND POWER B M F Poon · C W Chang 7 26.0 4
9 10 SMART HUNTER SR/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 4 11.0 4-1/4
10 1 NITRO EXPRESS B/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 9 16.0 5
11 3 SCHOLAR Led early H/XB/TT2 H T Mo · L Ho 2 80.0 6-3/4
12 6 TOP ACCOLADE XB1/TT K H Chan · C H Yip 3 55.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALL BEST FRIENDS2. RUN THE TABLE+0.75L3. JIMMU+1.25L4. THIS IS CHARISMA+1.25L5. SHINEALOT+1.5L6. PRESIDENT STAR+2.75L7. RIGHTEOUS WIN+3L8. GRAND POWER+4L9. SMART HUNTER+4.25L10. NITRO EXPRESS+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RIGHTEOUS WIN (17.8%) finished 7th — the winner ALL BEST FRIENDS was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 RIGHTEOUS WIN 17.8% 5.61 7
2 4 PRESIDENT STAR 13.4% 7.48 6
3 2 RUN THE TABLE 12.6% 7.92 2
4 7 JIMMU 11.7% 8.54 3
5 10 SMART HUNTER 11.1% 8.98 9
6 12 SHINEALOT 6.8% 14.68 5
7 1 NITRO EXPRESS 6.7% 14.92 10
8 9 GRAND POWER 5.8% 17.36 8
9 6 TOP ACCOLADE 4.4% 22.47 12
10 8 THIS IS CHARISMA 4.4% 22.80 4
11 5 ALL BEST FRIENDS 4.1% 24.33 1
12 3 SCHOLAR 1.1% 87.82 11
RIGHTEOUS WINPRESIDENT STARRUN THE TABLEJIMMUSMART HUNTERSHINEALOTNITRO EXPRESSGRAND POWERTOP ACCOLADETHIS IS CHARISMAALL BEST FRIENDS — wonSCHOLAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 61

PLACE

2 35

5 19.5

7 27

QUINELLA

2,5 270.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 101

2,7 130.5

5,7 87.5

FORECAST

5,2 563

TIERCE

5,2,7 3,737

TRIO

2,5,7 752

FIRST 4

2,5,7,8 3,390

QUARTET

5,2,7,8 46,584

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 23.5

A2

A1