Happy Valley · 2021-10-31
Race 10
Race 10 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-31 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. JOLLY GOOD HEART, ridden by K C Leung and trained by T P Yung, won by N, with CALIFORNIA CIBLE second and CLASSIC POSH third. The 6.4 favourite HONG KONG BET finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | JOLLY GOOD HEART 1.09.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 5 | 8.1 | N |
| 2 | 7 | CALIFORNIA CIBLE TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 10 | 8.9 | N |
| 3 | 3 | CLASSIC POSH Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 8 | 6.5 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | HONG KONG BET B/TT K H Chan · W Y So | K H Chan | W Y So | 3 | 6.4 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | SPECIAL M B/TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 4 | 22.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | STOICISM L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 12 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | TELECOM SMART B/TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 1 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | MOMENTUM GALAXY B V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 2 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | WINNING METHOD TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 11 | 7.9 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | BE READY V M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 9 | 10.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | JAZZ STEED TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 11.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 9 | SUNSHINE SUPREME TT1 A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 7 | 11.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | TELECOM SMART | 13.2% | 7.58 | 7 |
| 2 | 5 | JOLLY GOOD HEART | 10.6% | 9.44 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | HONG KONG BET | 10.5% | 9.55 | 4 |
| 4 | 12 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 10.4% | 9.59 | 8 |
| 5 | 1 | BE READY | 10.3% | 9.70 | 10 |
| 6 | 8 | STOICISM | 9.6% | 10.38 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | CLASSIC POSH | 8.8% | 11.42 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | JAZZ STEED | 8.5% | 11.71 | 11 |
| 9 | 2 | WINNING METHOD | 7.1% | 14.05 | 9 |
| 10 | 7 | CALIFORNIA CIBLE | 4.8% | 20.98 | 2 |
| 11 | 9 | SUNSHINE SUPREME | 3.4% | 29.49 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | SPECIAL M | 2.8% | 35.70 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 81.5
PLACE
3 21
5 31
7 39
QUINELLA
5,7 591
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 131
3,7 99.5
5,7 212
FORECAST
5,7 1,149
TIERCE
5,7,3 7,939
TRIO
3,5,7 1,138
FIRST 4
3,4,5,7 1,758
QUARTET
5,7,3,4 47,537
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 15
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,5/3,5,7 306,402
9TH DOUBLE
4/5 474
4/7 45
SIX UP
9,11/7,12/2,7/8,12/3,4/5,7 505,553
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
8/4/5 5,001
8/4/7 477