Happy Valley · 2021-10-31
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-31 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. LIGHTNING STORM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with FABULOUS EIGHT second and TURBO POWER third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LIGHTNING STORM TT1 0.57.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 2.0 | SH |
| 2 | 3 | FABULOUS EIGHT B/TT C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 12 | 16.0 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | TURBO POWER C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 7 | 16.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | WILD WEST WING A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 2 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | NOIR RIDER B K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 6 | 8.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | GOOD BEAUTY CP/TT V Borges · K L Man | V Borges | K L Man | 11 | 28.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | MY MY MY M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 3 | 9.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | CALL ME LU XB1/TT1 K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 9 | 110.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | DIVINE ERA TT C Wong · K H Ting | C Wong | K H Ting | 5 | 44.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | KAI XIN DRAGON B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 8 | 5.7 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | SUPER COMMANDER B2/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 10 | 36.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | DRAGON KINGDOM B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 4 | 29.0 | 7-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LIGHTNING STORM | 18.6% | 5.38 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | MY MY MY | 13.7% | 7.29 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | NOIR RIDER | 13.5% | 7.39 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | KAI XIN DRAGON | 11.8% | 8.45 | 10 |
| 5 | 2 | TURBO POWER | 10.6% | 9.39 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | FABULOUS EIGHT | 7.6% | 13.09 | 2 |
| 7 | 10 | GOOD BEAUTY | 5.2% | 19.37 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | SUPER COMMANDER | 4.8% | 20.74 | 11 |
| 9 | 11 | DIVINE ERA | 4.7% | 21.25 | 9 |
| 10 | 6 | CALL ME LU | 3.7% | 26.91 | 8 |
| 11 | 1 | WILD WEST WING | 3.7% | 27.39 | 4 |
| 12 | 12 | DRAGON KINGDOM | 2.0% | 50.55 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 20.5
PLACE
2 40
3 37
7 12.5
QUINELLA
3,7 213
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 243.5
2,7 70
3,7 77
FORECAST
7,3 215
TIERCE
7,3,2 2,194
TRIO
2,3,7 767
FIRST 4
1,2,3,7 1,155
QUARTET
7,3,2,1 12,477
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
7/3 95
7/7 128.5
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 17
A2 —