Happy Valley · 2021-10-31
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-31 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. KEEP YOU WARM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-1/4, with FIRST RESPONDER second and NEVER TOO SOON third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | KEEP YOU WARM B/XB 0.56.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 4 | 2.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | FIRST RESPONDER B C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 8.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | NEVER TOO SOON M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 12 | 111.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | WE THE SOUTH H/XB V Borges · F C Lor | V Borges | F C Lor | 5 | 7.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | PROPICE B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 2 | 33.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT M Chadwick · D A Hayes | M Chadwick | D A Hayes | 11 | 13.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | GUNNISON H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 9 | 27.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | HEART CONQUERED K H Chan · R Gibson | K H Chan | R Gibson | 7 | 7.7 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | BABY A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 1 | 22.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | COLONEL V C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 6 | 21.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 12 | AMAZING ROCKY H K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 10 | 5.4 | 6 |
| 12 | 8 | BRILLIANT LIFE B1 K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 8 | 18.0 | 10-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | KEEP YOU WARM | 20.9% | 4.78 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | FIRST RESPONDER | 15.8% | 6.33 | 2 |
| 3 | 12 | AMAZING ROCKY | 11.9% | 8.38 | 11 |
| 4 | 7 | HEART CONQUERED | 9.7% | 10.31 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | SUPER AXIOM | 8.5% | 11.83 | 6 |
| 6 | 2 | GUNNISON | 7.4% | 13.55 | 7 |
| 7 | 10 | COLONEL | 7.0% | 14.39 | 10 |
| 8 | 1 | WE THE SOUTH | 5.8% | 17.22 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | BABY | 5.0% | 20.09 | 9 |
| 10 | 6 | PROPICE | 3.2% | 30.77 | 5 |
| 11 | 8 | BRILLIANT LIFE | 2.7% | 37.66 | 12 |
| 12 | 5 | NEVER TOO SOON | 2.2% | 45.98 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 29
PLACE
3 22.5
4 14
5 264.5
QUINELLA
3,4 117.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 43
3,5 1,146
4,5 620.5
FORECAST
4,3 165
TIERCE
4,3,5 10,467
TRIO
3,4,5 3,438
FIRST 4
1,3,4,5 3,339
QUARTET
4,3,5,1 57,282
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 21
A3 —
8TH DOUBLE
8/3 164.5
8/4 448