Happy Valley · 2021-10-31
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-31 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SEAWEED FORTUNE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with CHARIZARD second and V CHEVALIERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite ERNEST FEELING finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SEAWEED FORTUNE Closed strongly V/TT 1.39.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 17.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 12 | CHARIZARD Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 3 | 8.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 10 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 11 | 36.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | ERNEST FEELING Led early B/TT Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 5 | 2.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | CHATER PINS Closed strongly B- A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 12 | 58.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | MORE THAN ENOUGH B/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 2 | 10.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | FREE FOAL M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 8 | 7.9 | 6 |
| 9 | 8 | MAKE IT TURBO M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 47.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | TURQUOISE ALPHA CP K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 25.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | FAST PACE H B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 7 | 10.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 9 | CHEERFUL LEADER B/XB K H Chan · P F Yiu | K H Chan | P F Yiu | 9 | 25.0 | 17-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | ERNEST FEELING | 30.8% | 3.25 | 5 |
| 2 | 1 | FAST PACE | 13.8% | 7.24 | 11 |
| 3 | 2 | MORE THAN ENOUGH | 10.6% | 9.40 | 7 |
| 4 | 6 | FREE FOAL | 8.8% | 11.34 | 8 |
| 5 | 12 | CHARIZARD | 7.8% | 12.82 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | SEAWEED FORTUNE | 6.0% | 16.61 | 1 |
| 7 | 4 | JOLLY HONOUR | 5.6% | 17.76 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | TURQUOISE ALPHA | 5.3% | 18.71 | 10 |
| 9 | 3 | V CHEVALIERS | 3.9% | 25.41 | 3 |
| 10 | 11 | CHATER PINS | 3.4% | 29.23 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | CHEERFUL LEADER | 3.1% | 31.87 | 12 |
| 12 | 8 | MAKE IT TURBO | 0.7% | 149.83 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 176
PLACE
3 33.5
7 40.5
12 22
QUINELLA
7,12 811.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 215
3,12 149.5
7,12 180
FORECAST
7,12 1,401
TIERCE
7,12,3 13,547
TRIO
3,7,12 2,327
FIRST 4
3,4,7,12 5,235
QUARTET
7,12,3,4 95,788
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 36
A1 —
5TH DOUBLE
11/7 1,159
11/12 79
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,6,9/8,9,11/Any Combination 2,607