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Happy Valley · 2021-10-31

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-31 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SEAWEED FORTUNE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with CHARIZARD second and V CHEVALIERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite ERNEST FEELING finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.39.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 SEAWEED FORTUNE Closed strongly V/TT 1.39.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 17.0 1-1/4
2 12 CHARIZARD Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 3 8.4 1-1/4
3 3 V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · K L Man 10 13.0 1-1/2
4 4 JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · Y S Tsui 11 36.0 4-1/4
5 10 ERNEST FEELING Led early B/TT Z Purton · R Gibson 5 2.0 5-1/4
6 11 CHATER PINS Closed strongly B- A Hamelin · D A Hayes 12 58.0 5-1/2
7 2 MORE THAN ENOUGH B/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 2 10.0 5-3/4
8 6 FREE FOAL M Chadwick · F C Lor 8 7.9 6
9 8 MAKE IT TURBO M F Poon · D J Hall 1 47.0 6-1/4
10 5 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 4 25.0 6-3/4
11 1 FAST PACE H B Shinn · C Fownes 7 10.0 8
12 9 CHEERFUL LEADER B/XB K H Chan · P F Yiu 9 25.0 17-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SEAWEED FORTUNE2. CHARIZARD+1.25L3. V CHEVALIERS+1.5L4. JOLLY HONOUR+4.25L5. ERNEST FEELING+5.25L6. CHATER PINS+5.5L7. MORE THAN ENOUGH+5.75L8. FREE FOAL+6L9. MAKE IT TURBO+6.25L10. TURQUOISE ALPHA+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ERNEST FEELING (30.8%) finished 5th — the winner SEAWEED FORTUNE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 ERNEST FEELING 30.8% 3.25 5
2 1 FAST PACE 13.8% 7.24 11
3 2 MORE THAN ENOUGH 10.6% 9.40 7
4 6 FREE FOAL 8.8% 11.34 8
5 12 CHARIZARD 7.8% 12.82 2
6 7 SEAWEED FORTUNE 6.0% 16.61 1
7 4 JOLLY HONOUR 5.6% 17.76 4
8 5 TURQUOISE ALPHA 5.3% 18.71 10
9 3 V CHEVALIERS 3.9% 25.41 3
10 11 CHATER PINS 3.4% 29.23 6
11 9 CHEERFUL LEADER 3.1% 31.87 12
12 8 MAKE IT TURBO 0.7% 149.83 9
ERNEST FEELINGFAST PACEMORE THAN ENOUGHFREE FOALCHARIZARDSEAWEED FORTUNE — wonJOLLY HONOURTURQUOISE ALPHAV CHEVALIERSCHATER PINSCHEERFUL LEADERMAKE IT TURBO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 176

PLACE

3 33.5

7 40.5

12 22

QUINELLA

7,12 811.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 215

3,12 149.5

7,12 180

FORECAST

7,12 1,401

TIERCE

7,12,3 13,547

TRIO

3,7,12 2,327

FIRST 4

3,4,7,12 5,235

QUARTET

7,12,3,4 95,788

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 36

A1

5TH DOUBLE

11/7 1,159

11/12 79

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,6,9/8,9,11/Any Combination 2,607