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Happy Valley · 2021-10-31

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 2200m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-31 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. GOD OF DRAGON, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with ABOVE second and BLASTOISE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite GOLDEN SPECTRUM finished 9th.

Result

Official · 2.16.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 GOD OF DRAGON Closed strongly B/XB 2.16.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte 10 5.1 N
2 9 ABOVE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · A T Millard 11 6.6 N
3 8 BLASTOISE Led early L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 9 8.7 1-1/4
4 2 VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT B Shinn · C H Yip 6 8.8 3-1/2
5 7 DYNAMIC EAGLE A Badel · C S Shum 4 6.6 5-1/4
6 1 NORDIC SKY SR/XB A Hamelin · A T Millard 1 36.0 6-1/4
7 10 STIMULATION Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 16.0 7-1/4
8 6 SUPERBELLA V/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 8 11.0 10
9 5 GOLDEN SPECTRUM CP/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 5 4.1 11-1/4
10 3 GREEN LASER B-/TT T Piccone · D E Ferraris 3 99.0 22-1/4
11 4 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H-/XB K C Leung · Y S Tsui 2 17.0 25-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOD OF DRAGON2. ABOVE+0.05L3. BLASTOISE+1.25L4. VINCY+3.5L5. DYNAMIC EAGLE+5.25L6. NORDIC SKY+6.25L7. STIMULATION+7.25L8. SUPERBELLA+10L9. GOLDEN SPECTRUM+11.25L10. GREEN LASER+22.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick DYNAMIC EAGLE (16.8%) finished 5th — the winner GOD OF DRAGON was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 DYNAMIC EAGLE 16.8% 5.97 5
2 5 GOLDEN SPECTRUM 13.9% 7.22 9
3 11 GOD OF DRAGON 12.7% 7.85 1
4 6 SUPERBELLA 12.3% 8.14 8
5 10 STIMULATION 11.8% 8.46 7
6 9 ABOVE 8.6% 11.66 2
7 8 BLASTOISE 8.3% 12.03 3
8 2 VINCY 7.4% 13.50 4
9 4 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 4.6% 21.63 11
10 1 NORDIC SKY 2.6% 38.90 6
11 3 GREEN LASER 1.1% 94.45 10
DYNAMIC EAGLEGOLDEN SPECTRUMGOD OF DRAGON — wonSUPERBELLASTIMULATIONABOVEBLASTOISEVINCYARTHUR'S KINGDOMNORDIC SKYGREEN LASER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 51.5

PLACE

8 26.5

9 21.5

11 19

QUINELLA

9,11 155.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 102

8,11 75.5

9,11 59

FORECAST

11,9 326

TIERCE

11,9,8 2,277

TRIO

8,9,11 406

FIRST 4

2,8,9,11 1,037

QUARTET

11,9,8,2 16,969

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 23.5

A1

A3

4TH DOUBLE

9/9 89.5

9/11 422