Happy Valley · 2021-10-31
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-31 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. BEAR AGAIN, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D E Ferraris, won by SH, with KING'S CAPITAL second and SMOOTHIES third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite SMOOTHIES finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BEAR AGAIN Wire to wire SR 1.40.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 2 | 21.0 | SH |
| 2 | 7 | KING'S CAPITAL Closed strongly C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 6 | 7.5 | SH |
| 3 | 6 | SMOOTHIES Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 4 | 2.8 | HD |
| 4 | 1 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT V/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 5 | 5.1 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | ROYAL BOMB L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 1 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | INCANTO PREPARED E/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 3 | 25.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | SACRED IBIS Closed strongly XB K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 9 | 3.4 | 2 |
| 8 | 5 | FARSHAD CP C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 8 | 30.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | SMILING CITY CP/SR M F Poon · D J Whyte | M F Poon | D J Whyte | 7 | 19.0 | 12-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT | 24.5% | 4.08 | 4 |
| 2 | 6 | SMOOTHIES | 20.9% | 4.78 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | KING'S CAPITAL | 15.8% | 6.34 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | SACRED IBIS | 11.8% | 8.47 | 7 |
| 5 | 3 | ROYAL BOMB | 8.2% | 12.16 | 5 |
| 6 | 4 | INCANTO PREPARED | 7.7% | 13.07 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | FARSHAD | 4.1% | 24.55 | 8 |
| 8 | 2 | BEAR AGAIN | 3.6% | 27.57 | 1 |
| 9 | 9 | SMILING CITY | 3.4% | 29.40 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 218.5
PLACE
2 54.5
6 12
7 19
QUINELLA
2,7 1,141.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 115.5
2,7 261.5
6,7 35.5
FORECAST
2,7 2,049
TIERCE
2,7,6 8,947
TRIO
2,6,7 794
FIRST 4
1,2,6,7 639
QUARTET
2,7,6,1 26,716
All pools (3 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,12/2,6,7 216,867
3 PICK 1
A3 53.5
A2 —
A1 —
6TH DOUBLE
7/2 2,029.5
7/7 335.5