Happy Valley · 2021-10-31
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-31 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FLAMING PASSION, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with WINWIN THIRTYTHREE second and HERO STAR third. The 4.0 favourite IRON KING finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | FLAMING PASSION TT 1.10.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 3 | 7.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 12 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE B C Wong · P F Yiu | C Wong | P F Yiu | 4 | 52.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | HERO STAR TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 11 | 8.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | FARIBAULT CP K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 5.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | MELBOURNE HALL XB M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 7 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | AURORA PEGASUS H1/V1/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 1 | 9.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | FORTUNE MASTER B C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 5 | 15.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | IRON KING TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 10 | 4.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/XB/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 12 | 51.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | BALTIC WHISPER TT A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 8 | 19.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | EUROMISSILE CP/XB C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 6 | 23.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 6 | BEAUTY CHEERS A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 9 | 8.5 | 21-3/4 |
| — | 0 | HERE COMES TED L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | IRON KING | 22.8% | 4.39 | 8 |
| 2 | 7 | FARIBAULT | 11.8% | 8.45 | 4 |
| 3 | 8 | FLAMING PASSION | 11.4% | 8.76 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | BALTIC WHISPER | 10.7% | 9.33 | 10 |
| 5 | 6 | BEAUTY CHEERS | 7.7% | 13.03 | 12 |
| 6 | 2 | AURORA PEGASUS | 6.5% | 15.33 | 6 |
| 7 | 11 | MELBOURNE HALL | 6.5% | 15.42 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | HERO STAR | 5.9% | 17.03 | 3 |
| 9 | 9 | FORTUNE MASTER | 5.4% | 18.48 | 7 |
| 10 | 3 | EUROMISSILE | 3.8% | 26.19 | 11 |
| 11 | 12 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 3.8% | 26.25 | 2 |
| 12 | 1 | PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN | 3.7% | 27.33 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 70.5
PLACE
4 29
8 26
12 123
QUINELLA
8,12 1,912
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 92.5
4,12 543.5
8,12 521.5
FORECAST
8,12 5,265
TIERCE
8,12,4 23,383
TRIO
4,8,12 3,543
FIRST 4
4,7,8,12 5,270
QUARTET
8,12,4,7 192,966
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 22
A1 —
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
2/8 2,024.5
2/12 1,497