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Sha Tin · 2021-11-13

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-13 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MASTER HERO, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with SAUVESTRE second and COBHFIELD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite SAUVESTRE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 MASTER HERO Closed strongly XB/TT 1.21.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz 12 4.6 3/4
2 10 SAUVESTRE Closed strongly Z Purton · F C Lor 2 2.9 3/4
3 2 COBHFIELD Closed strongly SR1/XB1 K Teetan · A T Millard 1 9.1 1-1/2
4 4 PRIVATE ROCKET SR-/XB/CP2 H Bentley · D J Whyte 6 15.0 1-3/4
5 13 SKY FOREVER Closed strongly B1/TT H W Lai · K L Man 14 20.0 2-3/4
6 1 AMAZING ONE PLUS Closed strongly P/XB/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 5 11.0 3
7 8 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE Led early TT M F Poon · D J Hall 8 31.0 3-1/4
8 12 PAKISTAN FRIEND Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · W Y So 3 10.0 3-1/4
9 7 SUPER DYNAMITE Closed strongly C Schofield · P F Yiu 10 127.0 3-1/2
10 14 FEARLESS FIRE XB C Wong · D A Hayes 4 25.0 3-3/4
11 11 WIN WIN FIGHTER V Borges · K W Lui 13 168.0 5-3/4
12 3 REGENCY BO BO B/TT K H Chan · C S Shum 7 60.0 9-1/4
13 6 THE HULK K C Leung · C Fownes 9 35.0 12-3/4
14 5 TEMPEST EXPRESS E/TT A Badel · J Size 11 8.7 16-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER HERO2. SAUVESTRE+0.75L3. COBHFIELD+1.5L4. PRIVATE ROCKET+1.75L5. SKY FOREVER+2.75L6. AMAZING ONE PLUS+3L7. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE+3.25L8. PAKISTAN FRIEND+3.25L9. SUPER DYNAMITE+3.5L10. FEARLESS FIRE+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SAUVESTRE (31.9%) finished 2nd — the winner MASTER HERO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 SAUVESTRE 31.9% 3.14 2
2 9 MASTER HERO 24.5% 4.09 1
3 5 TEMPEST EXPRESS 6.9% 14.56 14
4 8 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 6.7% 14.88 7
5 2 COBHFIELD 5.0% 20.14 3
6 3 REGENCY BO BO 4.3% 23.37 12
7 1 AMAZING ONE PLUS 4.0% 24.81 6
8 14 FEARLESS FIRE 3.8% 26.07 10
9 13 SKY FOREVER 3.2% 31.23 5
10 4 PRIVATE ROCKET 2.9% 34.15 4
11 12 PAKISTAN FRIEND 2.7% 37.26 8
12 7 SUPER DYNAMITE 1.6% 63.39 9
13 11 WIN WIN FIGHTER 1.3% 76.57 11
14 6 THE HULK 1.3% 78.77 13
SAUVESTREMASTER HERO — wonTEMPEST EXPRESSQUADRUPLE DOUBLECOBHFIELDREGENCY BO BOAMAZING ONE PLUSFEARLESS FIRESKY FOREVERPRIVATE ROCKETPAKISTAN FRIENDSUPER DYNAMITEWIN WIN FIGHTERTHE HULK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 46

PLACE

2 30.5

9 17

10 14.5

QUINELLA

9,10 68

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 76

2,10 58

9,10 32

FORECAST

9,10 145

TIERCE

9,10,2 757

TRIO

2,9,10 153

FIRST 4

2,4,9,10 548

QUARTET

9,10,2,4 7,952

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 18

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,4/2,9,10 2,224

9TH DOUBLE

2/9 276

2/10 47

SIX UP

7,12/11,13/5,6/2,5/1,2/9,10 6,226

7/13/6/5/2/9 560,495

2 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

5/2/9 802

5/2/10 121