Sha Tin · 2021-11-13
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-13 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PINS PRINCE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by N, with SMART WONGCHOY second and LUCKY ARCHANGEL third. The 4.9 favourite MOST WELCOME finished 13th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | PINS PRINCE H1/P1/TT1 1.09.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 5.6 | N |
| 2 | 12 | SMART WONGCHOY CP/H C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 6.6 | N |
| 3 | 10 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL XB/CP1 M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 14 | 17.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | STREET SCREAM H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 11 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | MARVEL DRAGON TT C Y Ho · T P Yung | C Y Ho | T P Yung | 13 | 6.3 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | PEGASUS GLORY B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 6 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | FORTUNE MASTER B V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 9 | 34.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | GOOD NEWS CP1/TT C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 10 | 6.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 13 | DAILY BEAUTY B/TT H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 7 | 160.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | POLYMER GLORIOUS SR1 L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 12 | 17.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 14 | ALL YOU KNOW B/TT M L Yeung · R Gibson | M L Yeung | R Gibson | 5 | 92.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 9 | SHINY TWO H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 1 | 80.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 6 | MOST WELCOME BO A Badel · D A Hayes | A Badel | D A Hayes | 2 | 4.9 | 7-1/4 |
| 14 | 3 | FLYING GIANT XB H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 4 | 104.0 | 7-1/2 |
| — | 0 | CHICKEN DANCE A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan | A Hamelin | P O'Sullivan | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | PINS PRINCE | 27.1% | 3.69 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | GOOD NEWS | 13.7% | 7.29 | 8 |
| 3 | 5 | STREET SCREAM | 13.3% | 7.52 | 4 |
| 4 | 6 | MOST WELCOME | 9.0% | 11.09 | 13 |
| 5 | 4 | PEGASUS GLORY | 6.5% | 15.44 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | MARVEL DRAGON | 6.5% | 15.46 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | POLYMER GLORIOUS | 6.0% | 16.78 | 10 |
| 8 | 12 | SMART WONGCHOY | 4.8% | 21.05 | 2 |
| 9 | 10 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 4.6% | 21.54 | 3 |
| 10 | 14 | ALL YOU KNOW | 2.7% | 37.43 | 11 |
| 11 | 11 | FORTUNE MASTER | 2.5% | 40.10 | 7 |
| 12 | 9 | SHINY TWO | 2.1% | 48.37 | 12 |
| 13 | 13 | DAILY BEAUTY | 0.8% | 129.73 | 9 |
| 14 | 3 | FLYING GIANT | 0.5% | 189.20 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 56.5
PLACE
7 23
10 63
12 20.5
QUINELLA
7,12 207
QUINELLA PLACE
7,10 215.5
7,12 75
10,12 223
FORECAST
7,12 403
TIERCE
7,12,10 6,230
TRIO
7,10,12 1,280
FIRST 4
5,7,10,12 2,498
QUARTET
7,12,10,5 50,810
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 30.5
4TH DOUBLE
11/7 1,529
11/12 320.5