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Sha Tin · 2021-11-13

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 0.56.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT2 0.56.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · D J Hall 12 13.0 N
2 0 VENTO Z Purton · D A Hayes 9 1.5 N
3 0 FLYING DRAGON K C Leung · C H Yip 4 8.4 1-1/4
4 0 FLYING HIGH H/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 5 20.0 3-1/4
5 0 FIERY DIAMOND C L Chau · T P Yung 7 15.0 4
6 0 DRAGON BABY B/E/TT J Moreira · J Size 1 14.0 4-3/4
7 0 ABOVE ALL XB/H1 K Teetan · A T Millard 8 36.0 5
8 0 RING BELLS A Hamelin · R Gibson 3 144.0 5
9 0 STRIVE FOR GLORY CP-/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 10 39.0 6
10 0 LUCKY TREASURE H/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 11 140.0 9
11 0 I BELIEVE IN MAGIC V Borges · P O'Sullivan 14 193.0 10-1/2
12 0 HANDSOME GUYS B1 M F Poon · Y S Tsui 13 22.0 11-3/4
13 0 EXCELLENT PEERS C Y Ho · P F Yiu 6 13.0 13-1/2
14 0 JUBILATION V1 H W Lai · L Ho 2 183.0 13-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-13 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. EIGHT TRIGRAMS, ridden by H T Mo and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with VENTO second and FLYING DRAGON third. The 1.5 favourite VENTO finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EIGHT TRIGRAMS—2. VENTO+0.05L3. FLYING DRAGON+1.25L4. FLYING HIGH+3.25L5. FIERY DIAMOND+4L6. DRAGON BABY+4.75L7. ABOVE ALL+5L8. RING BELLS+5L9. STRIVE FOR GLORY+6L10. LUCKY TREASURE+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick VENTO (33.5%) finished 2nd — the winner EIGHT TRIGRAMS was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 VENTO 33.5% 2.99 2
2 0 FLYING DRAGON 21.1% 4.75 3
3 0 DRAGON BABY 7.3% 13.75 6
4 0 EXCELLENT PEERS 6.7% 15.03 13
5 0 FLYING HIGH 6.5% 15.40 4
6 0 FIERY DIAMOND 5.9% 16.83 5
7 0 EIGHT TRIGRAMS 4.6% 21.61 1
8 0 RING BELLS 4.0% 24.99 8
9 0 ABOVE ALL 3.0% 33.00 7
10 0 HANDSOME GUYS 2.6% 39.10 12
11 0 STRIVE FOR GLORY 2.1% 46.91 9
12 0 JUBILATION 1.5% 68.62 14
13 0 LUCKY TREASURE 0.7% 138.39 10
14 0 I BELIEVE IN MAGIC 0.6% 180.33 11
VENTOFLYING DRAGONDRAGON BABYEXCELLENT PEERSFLYING HIGHFIERY DIAMONDEIGHT TRIGRAMS — wonRING BELLSABOVE ALLHANDSOME GUYSSTRIVE FOR GLORYJUBILATIONLUCKY TREASUREI BELIEVE IN MAGIC

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 136.5

PLACE

2 20

3 28

9 10.1

QUINELLA

3,9 100

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 96

2,9 26.5

3,9 43

FORECAST

3,9 384

TIERCE

3,9,2 1,575

TRIO

2,3,9 179

FIRST 4

1,2,3,9 300

QUARTET

3,9,2,1 12,290

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 52.5

A1 —

A3 —