Sha Tin · 2021-11-13
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-13 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. INCREDIBLE, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by T P Yung, won by 2-1/2, with SUCCESS ALLSTARS second and WAH MAY LUCK third. The winner led throughout. The 5.3 favourite FIGURES TWO finished 12th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | INCREDIBLE Wire to wire TT 1.47.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 7 | 16.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS Closed strongly B L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 10 | 24.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | WAH MAY LUCK B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 2 | 37.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 6 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | THIS IS CHARISMA Closed strongly CP Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 13 | 6.7 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | JOLLY FOREVER Closed strongly XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 3 | 6.1 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | CROWN AVENUE V- K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 12 | 11.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | SUPER KIN TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 8 | 13.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | PAKISTAN ZINDABAD B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 9 | 27.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | WEALTHY EMPLOYEE B M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 1 | 11.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | JIMMU Closed strongly SR J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 4 | 7.8 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | FIGURES TWO K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 11 | 5.3 | 10-1/2 |
| 13 | 14 | SPEED FORCE B M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 14 | 14.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | WINNING GENGHIS V C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 5 | 94.0 | 18-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | JIMMU | 14.5% | 6.88 | 11 |
| 2 | 6 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 14.2% | 7.02 | 5 |
| 3 | 8 | DIAMOND STAR | 11.2% | 8.96 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | FIGURES TWO | 11.2% | 8.96 | 12 |
| 5 | 10 | JOLLY FOREVER | 9.9% | 10.09 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | SUPER KIN | 9.8% | 10.17 | 8 |
| 7 | 12 | WEALTHY EMPLOYEE | 7.3% | 13.78 | 10 |
| 8 | 3 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS | 6.4% | 15.57 | 2 |
| 9 | 1 | CROWN AVENUE | 4.3% | 23.29 | 7 |
| 10 | 5 | PAKISTAN ZINDABAD | 4.1% | 24.18 | 9 |
| 11 | 2 | WAH MAY LUCK | 2.2% | 44.64 | 3 |
| 12 | 14 | SPEED FORCE | 2.1% | 47.86 | 13 |
| 13 | 11 | INCREDIBLE | 1.6% | 63.43 | 1 |
| 14 | 13 | WINNING GENGHIS | 1.1% | 88.38 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 167
PLACE
2 95.5
3 67.5
11 51.5
QUINELLA
3,11 3,662.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 886
2,11 1,277
3,11 1,127
FORECAST
11,3 7,178
TIERCE
11,3,2 148,527
TRIO
2,3,11 32,610
FIRST 4
2,3,8,11 39,224
QUARTET
11,3,2,8 1,053,825
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
6,8,10/2,3,11 2,014,759
3 PICK 1
A3 20
A2 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
8/3 244
8/11 1,931