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Sha Tin · 2021-11-13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-13 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. THE GOLDEN SCENERY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with PACKING VICTORY second and ROCK YA HEART third. The 1.9 favourite PACKING VICTORY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 THE GOLDEN SCENERY TT 1.09.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz 7 8.0 SH
2 1 PACKING VICTORY TT Z Purton · C S Shum 1 1.9 SH
3 4 ROCK YA HEART CP C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 12.0 1/2
4 3 EXCELLENT DADDY K C Leung · T P Yung 5 8.1 1/2
5 5 WAR WEAPON TT J Moreira · C Fownes 2 11.0 1
6 10 ARMOUR EAGLE H N Wong · Y S Tsui 11 153.0 2
7 12 GALLANT EXPRESS E A Badel · J Size 12 7.6 2
8 9 INDIGENOUS REALM TT1 M Chadwick · K L Man 9 124.0 2-1/2
9 8 BIRDSVILLE M L Yeung · D A Hayes 3 12.0 3-3/4
10 6 HURRY HURRY GAIN H Bentley · F C Lor 4 57.0 4
11 7 IAN M F Poon · F C Lor 8 49.0 6-1/2
12 11 SCIENCE PATCH B1 C L Chau · P O'Sullivan 10 42.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE GOLDEN SCENERY—2. PACKING VICTORY+0.1L3. ROCK YA HEART+0.5L4. EXCELLENT DADDY+0.5L5. WAR WEAPON+1L6. ARMOUR EAGLE+2L7. GALLANT EXPRESS+2L8. INDIGENOUS REALM+2.5L9. BIRDSVILLE+3.75L10. HURRY HURRY GAIN+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick PACKING VICTORY (42.6%) finished 2nd — the winner THE GOLDEN SCENERY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PACKING VICTORY 42.6% 2.35 2
2 5 WAR WEAPON 15.0% 6.66 5
3 2 THE GOLDEN SCENERY 11.0% 9.07 1
4 4 ROCK YA HEART 8.7% 11.50 3
5 3 EXCELLENT DADDY 7.7% 12.93 4
6 12 GALLANT EXPRESS 5.7% 17.51 7
7 11 SCIENCE PATCH 4.2% 24.03 12
8 7 IAN 1.5% 64.69 11
9 6 HURRY HURRY GAIN 1.5% 66.43 10
10 8 BIRDSVILLE 0.8% 129.93 9
11 9 INDIGENOUS REALM 0.7% 148.54 8
12 10 ARMOUR EAGLE 0.6% 168.14 6
PACKING VICTORYWAR WEAPONTHE GOLDEN SCENERY — wonROCK YA HEARTEXCELLENT DADDYGALLANT EXPRESSSCIENCE PATCHIANHURRY HURRY GAINBIRDSVILLEINDIGENOUS REALMARMOUR EAGLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 80.5

PLACE

1 12

2 21

4 28.5

QUINELLA

1,2 69.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 29.5

1,4 42.5

2,4 97

FORECAST

2,1 199

TIERCE

2,1,4 1,307

TRIO

1,2,4 140

FIRST 4

1,2,3,4 173

QUARTET

2,1,4,3 5,044

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 15.5

A3 —

8TH DOUBLE

5/1 10.5

5/2 141.5

← Race 8 Race 10 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99