Sha Tin · 2021-11-13
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-13 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. VICTORIOUS SEEKER, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1-1/2, with AWE second and RED ELYSEES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite JOYFUL HEART finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER Closed strongly B 2.01.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 9.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | AWE Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 3 | 7.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | RED ELYSEES Closed strongly A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 9 | 8.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | CHAMPION PAL Closed strongly B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan | M F Poon | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 103.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 11 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | JOYFUL HEART Led early CP/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 1 | 3.6 | 7 |
| 7 | 11 | SUN OF MAKFI XB C L Chau · D J Hall | C L Chau | D J Hall | 6 | 5.6 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | EZRA B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 8 | 5.0 | 14 |
| 9 | 7 | FLYING MIGHTY CP/TT C Schofield · D J Hall | C Schofield | D J Hall | 4 | 23.0 | 16-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | FLASH FAMOUS B/TT J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 10 | 21.0 | 29-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | CAPTAIN TIGER TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 7 | 114.0 | 29-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | JOYFUL HEART | 25.2% | 3.96 | 6 |
| 2 | 2 | EZRA | 22.2% | 4.50 | 8 |
| 3 | 6 | AWE | 15.6% | 6.42 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | SUN OF MAKFI | 8.5% | 11.74 | 7 |
| 5 | 9 | FLASH FAMOUS | 8.2% | 12.22 | 10 |
| 6 | 10 | RED ELYSEES | 5.7% | 17.49 | 3 |
| 7 | 5 | COPARTNER ERA | 5.5% | 18.03 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER | 4.2% | 23.89 | 1 |
| 9 | 7 | FLYING MIGHTY | 2.5% | 39.30 | 9 |
| 10 | 3 | CHAMPION PAL | 1.5% | 68.85 | 4 |
| 11 | 1 | CAPTAIN TIGER | 0.8% | 122.21 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 94.5
PLACE
6 23
8 30
10 26
QUINELLA
6,8 371
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 114.5
6,10 87.5
8,10 121.5
FORECAST
8,6 762
TIERCE
8,6,10 4,953
TRIO
6,8,10 909
FIRST 4
3,6,8,10 11,610
QUARTET
8,6,10,3 183,228
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
4/6 54
4/8 312.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 24
A3 —