Sha Tin · 2021-11-13
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-13 was Class 1 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY EXPRESS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by HD, with FAST MOST FURIOUS second and HIGHLAND FORTUNE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite FANTASTIC TREASURE finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | LUCKY EXPRESS Closed strongly E/TT 1.21.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 1 | 5.7 | HD |
| 2 | 5 | FAST MOST FURIOUS Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 10 | 46.0 | HD |
| 3 | 10 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE Closed strongly K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 9 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | DUKE WAI Closed strongly B/H C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 18.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL Closed strongly E J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 8.2 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | SILVER EXPRESS B A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 3 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | VOYAGE WARRIOR Led early C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 6 | 74.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | NOT USUAL TALENT TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 8 | 44.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | FANTASTIC TREASURE C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 2 | 2.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | BUDDIES H M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 4 | 34.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT CP/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz | K H Chan | A S Cruz | 7 | 8.8 | 6-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | FANTASTIC TREASURE | 28.8% | 3.47 | 9 |
| 2 | 4 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL | 15.3% | 6.54 | 5 |
| 3 | 6 | LUCKY EXPRESS | 13.7% | 7.29 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | SILVER EXPRESS | 10.9% | 9.18 | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT | 7.2% | 13.98 | 11 |
| 6 | 2 | DUKE WAI | 6.7% | 15.00 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE | 5.8% | 17.11 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | FAST MOST FURIOUS | 3.5% | 28.92 | 2 |
| 9 | 8 | NOT USUAL TALENT | 2.8% | 36.20 | 8 |
| 10 | 3 | VOYAGE WARRIOR | 2.8% | 36.23 | 7 |
| 11 | 1 | BUDDIES | 2.7% | 37.49 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 57
PLACE
5 76
6 17
10 30.5
QUINELLA
5,6 942.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 242.5
5,10 385.5
6,10 93.5
FORECAST
6,5 1,830
TIERCE
6,5,10 16,153
TRIO
5,6,10 2,728
FIRST 4
2,5,6,10 6,280
QUARTET
6,5,10,2 132,446
All pools (4 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,11,13/5,6,10 1,890,727
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 15
6TH DOUBLE
13/5 982.5
13/6 1,287.5
WINNING TRAINER
B1 —
B2 26.5
B3 —
B4 —